Elon Musk SpaceX Stock Forecast: SPCX Holds $113 as $123B Lockup Looms
SPCX consolidates at $113 after hitting a record low despite a successful Flight 13. Aug 6 lockup and Aug 4 earnings loom.
SPCX consolidates at $113 after hitting a record low despite a successful Flight 13. Aug 6 lockup and Aug 4 earnings loom. Key level $117.10, $109 support. SpaceX (SPCX) is priced at $116, July 30, with the $110.35–$117.59 range after the fresh all-time low of $109.53. Earlier in the week, the stock hit a low of $109, and has since stabilized in a range of $109–$117.
Other than this tight consolidation, the deciding factor for the lack of stock movement, is the recent success of the July 24 SpaceX Starship Flight 13. Flight 13 was an engineering success, however, was not enough to cover the impending supply shock of the stock.
Why a Successful Launch Couldn’t Lift the Stock
Due to the three previous flight scrubs and engine failures on the July 16 flight, the July 24 flight of the SpaceX Starship was a major success in the eyes of the investors. During the same flight, 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites were deployed as well.
After the flight, Elon Musk was quick to disclose that one of the flight’s covert objectives was to test the heat shield tiles’ ability to remain secure during extreme reentry conditions, which would yield valuable information for the Starship’s reusability.
The stock fell to an unprecedented $109.53 on Monday. The August 6 lockup expiration dwarfs other calendar events. Two trading days post August 4 earnings, around 911.5 million shares – about 20% of the float – will become freely tradable, worth about $123 billion.
This is more stock than was made available to the public via the June IPO. For the first time, early stage investors and employees will be able to sell their stock and the market is accounting for that supply.
In a Bloomberg report, a second overhang was identified. SpaceX has begun refusing Falcon 9 customers who desire dedicated launches past 2028, and has ceased reservation for the Falcon 9 rideshare.
SpaceX is putting a lot of effort into Starship, and expects that Falcon 9 will soon be irrelevant. While it is a bold long-term bet, that does create short-term problems for other revenue streams that are financially stable, including Starlink.
Fundamentals and the Bull Case Beneath the Selloff
Starlink is currently an excellent business. Starlink has 10.3 million customers, and revenue of $11.4 billion for 2025, which accounts for 61% of projected revenue for SpaceX. Because of investments into Starship and xAI, the company is not currently profitable. In the first quarter alone, AI related capital expenditures were $7.7 billion, about 3 times as much as the previous year.
Wall Street maintains a fundamentally optimistic outlook despite the decline. Among the 33 analysts who offer coverage on SPCX, 22 classify it a Strong Buy with a target price of 231.83. That price target implies over 100% upside from the current share price. ARK’s Cathie Wood maintains SpaceX is one of the most important companies in the history of the world. The bull case is intact, but the issue is with the timing.
SPCX Technical Analysis: $117.10 is the Breakout Level
SPCX is now in the phase of Horizontal Consolidation (between $109.00 and $117.10) after being in the phase of Descending Channel. There are smaller candles between $109.00 and $117.10. These are Balanced candles and show indecisiveness. The 50-period EMA at $123.40 has a negative slope and caps the rallies keeping the long-term bearish.
A breakout at $117.10 will accelerate the demand to $122.70 and subsequently $129.40. Otherwise, SPCX will remain within the range. RSI is currently at 47 and is above the signal line, but is still below the 50 neutral line.
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Resistance: $117.10, $122.70, $129.40
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Support: $109.00, $101.80, $95.60
Trade Setup
Buy SPCX for a close above $117.10 with targets at $122.70 and $129.40. Set a stop loss at $109.00.
Sell SPCX when it breaks $109.00 with targets at $101.80 and $95.60. The latter targets are likely if selling occurs during a lockup.
FAQ SPCX: Lockup Selling, Flight 13, and $109 Support
Why did SPCX Stock Set a New Low after a Successful Starship Launch?
Even though Flight 13 was a Success on July 24, the market is more concerned with the August 6 lockup date. An estimated 911.5 million shares (about $123 Billion, or 20% of the float) will be available for trading, which is more than the total supply of the IPO. Stock will be sold (and not bought) for a major launch, because no successful launch can offset the fears of selling so many shares.
What significant events occurred for SPCX in early August?
Three events take place, in order: August 4 for Q2 earnings (the first earnings report following the IPO), and August 6 for the lockup completing. While the earnings report is important, the lockup is the greater event.
A solid earnings report has the opportunity to produce a stock price spike, however, due to the $123 billion lockup, the stock price is likely to drop again anyway. Therefore any price spike before the lockup is likely to be a temporary price increase, while the spike is actually seen as an opportunity for investors to cash out.
Is $109 the support price for SpaceX stock?
$109 is the support price in the current price consolidation range, along with the Monday price low of $109.53. It’s likely to hold, but the August 6 lockup is what determines if the price holds. The greater the sell off from unlocked stock holders, the greater the drawdown past $109 to $101.80, and potentially to $95.60. With the average of analysts’ price targets at $231.83, the stock has room for price appreciation, but with a current price under $123.40 (the 50-day EMA), the price is in a downward trend.
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