The EU/USD has made an impressive come back from the low price of 1.11 at the beginning of last week. It broke the 1.15 level on Tuesday evening but was unable to hold for too long. The pair made another attempt yesterday, but it only got as far as 1.1498 and then retraced slowly. There have been some rumors that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is buying this pair to appreciate the Euro against the Swiss Franc. This makes sense since the US economic stats from yesterday were quite impressive. The labor cost q/q, which is an indicator for the inflation, jumped 2.7%, yet the EUR/USD kept marching higher. It is not clear at this point why they do not buy EUR/CHF directly though It is possible that they have too much US Dollars at the moment.
According to the technical analysis, EUR/USD has reached the top in the near term and we might see the downtrend resume. The 20 exponential moving average is providing resistance and the price hasn´t been able to close above it. The Stochastichs indicator has reached the overbought are on the daily and H4 charts and is now headed down. So we plan to issue sell signals for this pair in the coming hours/days. But the US employment data is up in a couple of hours so that might alter the scenario. If the numbers miss the expectations then we might see another run up to 1.15, where we´ll consider opening a long term sell signal as well. We´ll be cautious and keep an eye on the news for any possible SNB intervention in this pair, because we know that those guys are merciless and can ruin all your plans at any moment.