Good morning, traders.
The financial markets shifted their risk-off sentiment after the better than expected ADP reports. The US dollar is finally on a bullish track while dragging the Gold down. It’s another exciting day as investor’s focus remains on the Euro because the ECB (European Central Bank) is due to release their monetary policy. Let’s see what we can expect from Draghi today…
Watchlist – Top Economic Events
EUR – ECB Monetary Policy Decision
Minimum Bid Rate – At 12:45 (GMT), the European Central Bank is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged, at 0.00%. However, since the European economic indicators have improved a lot, investors are expecting hawkish remarks from the Mario Draghi.
ECB Press Conference – The press conference is due at 13:30 (GMT) and investors will be looking for any remarks about the QE (Quantitative Easing) program. ECB President Mario Draghi may move the markets, especially if there are any minor tweaks to the release.
What can we expect from Mario Draghi?
President Draghi isn’t expected to raise rates, nor is he likely to talk about the interest rate.
The main agenda is the QE program. He may move to a slightly hawkish stance by removing wording about increasing the QE program. Whereas, any comments on tapering the QE can cause dramatically bullish trends in the Euro.
Canadian Dollar – CAD
Building Permits m/m – This is an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building. The data is due at 13:30 (GMT) but it’s forecasted to be -0.3% vs. 4.8% previously.
NHPI m/m – The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) is coming out at 13:30 (GMT) with a forecast of 0.1% vs. 0.0% in February 2018. Honestly, these indicators don’t play many roles in determining the market moves until it’s surprisingly high or low.
US Dollar – USD
Unemployment Claims – The US department of labor will release the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. The data is due at 13:30 (GMT) with a negative forecast of 220K vs. 210K. The higher claims are bad for the dollar, while higher employment change (ADP & NFP) are better. Since this is a weekly figure, the market may give us an opportunity to catch a quick 30-40 pips.
Check out FX Leaders News Trading Strategy for the best tips in trading the news before today’s economic events. Good luck and stay tuned for more updates.