Daily Brief, Dec 6: Economic Events Outlook – US & Canadian Labor Reports in Play
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Happy Friday, fellas.
It’s a day when the US will release its last NFP of 2019, which is why the market is a bit muted during the Asian session, and the same behavior can be expected during the European session.
The US jobless claims dropped to its lowest level since mid-April for last week, and the US trade deficit also dropped to its lowest level in nearly one and half years in October. Both were in favor of the US dollar but failed to make an impression due to increased pressure ahead of the release of average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change, and unemployment rate. Here’s what to expect from the market today.
Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today
EUR – French Trade Balance – 7:45 GMT
The Ministry for the Economy and Finance is due to report a difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. The French trade balance has been stable lately, and with dovish ECB rate decision and accommodative policy, the trade balance is expected to rise further to -4.8B vs. -5.6B beforehand.
EUR – German Industrial Production m/m – 7:00 GMT
Destatis is due to report a change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Previously, Germany has suffered from negative industrial production figures, but finally, economists are expecting some improvement in industrial production. The optimistic number of 0.1% vs. -0.6% is on the cards today.
CAD – Labor Market Report – 13:30 GMT
Employment Change – It’s always exciting to trade events like Canadian employment change as they are highly unpredictable, and the market often exhibits massive fluctuations in their release, primarily if the data reports a sudden rise or drop in the employment change. Employment change is due to release at 13:30 GMT. Last month’s figure was -1.8K; let’s see what the Canadian labor market has to share this month. Economists expectations are for 10K jobs this month.
Unemployment Rate – Canadian labor market figures seem to get worse over a dramatic drop in crude oil prices. Economists are expecting no change in the unemployment rate and it may remain steady at 5.5% for the month of December 2019.
The US NFP (Nonfarm Employment Change) and the unemployment rate will remain under the spotlight. Both these economic data sets will be monitored at 12:30 GMT. NFP is expected to be slightly positive at 189K vs. 128K during the previous month.
Whereas the unemployment rate is likely to stay unchanged at 3.6% and the average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% vs. 0.2% previously. The weaker data will offer an opportunity to short the Greenback for a quick 60-100 pips and vice versa.
Good luck and stay tuned to FX Leaders for quick trade plans and forex trading signals.