Will the new week bring some clarity in markets?

All Markets in Limbo on Uncertainty, Apart from Cryptocurrencies

Posted Sunday, November 15, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

This year we have seen almost everything, from the optimism following the US-China trade deal in late 2019 and early 2020, to the US-Iran geopolitical tensions, followed by the outbreak of coronavirus in China and then in the rest of the world. The West went into lockdowns, which brought back recession in many countries, despite central banks and governments throwing all they had to salvage the economy in spring.

In summer the global economy started to rebound after the reopening, but it didn’t last long. Europe and Australia brought back a certain degree of new restrictions in early autumn and the rest followed increasing measures as I write, which is hurting the global economy again, particularly the Eurozone. The hype leading to the US elections ended with a decline in the USD last week, but it stalled this weak after the news of a coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer, which could be 90% safe.

So, the uncertainty is so high right now. The US elections are heading to the High Court, which is leaving traders in a difficult place. From the reaction of the price action during November 4  when the votes were being counted showed that the USD liked a Trump win, since the USD rallied nearly 200 pips when Trump was in lead in the first several hours, then reversed and turned bearish when tables turned to Biden, declining the whole week.

The USD made a reversal on Monday after Pfitzer’s vaccine news which improved the sentiment, while stock markets surged, but since then they have been trading sideways. The vaccine hype sort of faded, while the uncertainty about US elections increased after lawsuits and audits. The global economy is headed back to recession, particularly Europe, which should hurt sentiment and risk assets such as crude Oil, while central banks and governments are expected to throw even more money at the economy on the other hand, which tries to weigh on the opposite side. Crude Oil made a round trip to $33 from $43 in two weeks, but looks unsure where to head now.

So, nothing is certain right now, everything could o one way or the other. The only beneficiary from all this is the cryptocurrency market which is benefiting from the uncertainty, as seen from the surge in Bitcoin and other major cryptos. The funny thing is that this market might turn into a safe haven, where cash flows in times of uncertainty, when a few years ago it was one of the riskiest markets.


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