The AUD/USD was very bullish last year, climbing around 25 cents from the bottom to the top in the first week of February. In the following two months we saw a retreat, but the bullish trend resumed again.

However, this pair couldn’t make any new highs, which was a signal that the reversal was about to come. It came last week, after the FED meeting, when they shifted their rhetoric suddenly and the USD turned bullish. The AUD/USD turned bearish, losing around 300 pips in a fast downward move.

The 50 SMA stopped the climb for the AUD/USD

Today, we saw a slight retrace higher, but it seems like the 50 SMA (yellow) is acting as resistance on the H1 chart. We decided to open a sell forex signal up there, since the retail sales in Australia for May were expected to cool off to 0.5%, but they actually slowed even further. So, we’re short on this pair with a sell AUD/USD signal, and the downward movement is already starting.

AUD/USD Live Chart

A miss – up just 0.1% on the month

• Preliminary retail sales for May +0.1%
• Expected Sales MoM 0.4%
• April retail sales were 1.1%

The figures for the State of Victoria dropped 1.5%, but this was offset by other states. Victoria is now out of its lockdown, so we should see a bounce in sales in June.