Forex Signals Brief for November 25: Thin Liquidity for Thanksgiving Week End
Skerdian Meta • 3 min read
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
The volatility has been very high in recent months as sentiment flips around, although yesterday the volatility was low, with the US markets being closed for Thanksgiving, which is a special day in the US. It’s a pure holiday, that is all-inclusive, reflective, and full of good food, family, and friends. So, markets were more quiet than usual, although the sentiment remained positive, which kept the USD bearish.
The JPY made the most of the continued USD weakness, with USD/JPY pushing close to 138. Stock markets pushed higher, as did commodity dollars, although the Euro and the CAD traded in a tight range. Crude Oil and Gold also remained sideways, as the thin liquidity kept traders on the sidelines.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today the economic calendar is pretty light again, as North America is still off, although we had the Tokyo core CPI inflation in the Asian session which ticked higher to 3.5%. The German final GDP for Q3 was released a while ago, which remained at 0.3%, while the German GfK consumer climate improved slightly but remains deeply negative, as prices keep surging everywhere.
Forex Signals Update
Yesterday the USD continued to remain soft from the previous days, although the moves were much smaller, so we couldn’t open many trades. We opened two buy AUD/USD signals after a small retreat, which closed in profit, so it wasn’t a bad day after all.
Buying AUD/USD Rejected by the 100 SMA
AUD/USD turned bullish this week after retreating lower toward the end of last week, and it has pushed above all moving averages on the H1 chart. We decided to open two buy forex signals yesterday after the retrace to the 20 SMA (gray) which has turned into support, both of which closed in profit as the bullish momenmtum resumed.
AUD/USD – H1 chart
The 200 SMA Keeping GOLD Under Control
Gold turned really bullish early this month as the USD retreated lower and the 50 SMA (yellow) was acting as support n the H1 chart. Although last week we saw a retreat and the 50 SMA turned into resistance. Buyers pushed above that moving average eventually but the 200 SMA (purple) is keeping Gold in check now.
XAU/USD – H1 chart
Cryptocurrencies turned bullish in October as risk sentiment improved but the bullish momentum has ended. They have turned bearish on the FTX news and after the bearish move earlier this month, we saw another decline last week which sent them to the lows from early November. But they are showing some buying pressure this week, so let’s see if they can turn the tide around.
Is the 50 SMA Turning Into Support for [[Bitcoin]?
Bitcoin retested the lows on Monday after turning bearish earlier this month as it fell to around $15,600 from $22,000 after the bankruptcy of FTX exchange. The price consolidated for a couple of weeks, but the decline resumed again as the 50 SMA (yellow) caught up with the price on the H4 chart and on Monday sellers retested the previous low, which held. We saw a bounce on Tuesday and buyers were testing the 50 SMA (yellow) which stopped the climb. But yesterday the price moved above that moving average, so it is turning into support now which is a good sign.
BTC/USD – H4 chart
ETHEREUM Moving Above $1,200
The FTX bankruptcy sent Ethereum crashing lower and despite attempts to turn bullish, sellers still remain in control. There was a consolidation here for a few weeks as well, but the 200 SMA (purple) caught up on the H1 chart and pushed the price lower. On Monday ETH/USD fell below $1,100 again but yesterday we saw a reversal, so buyers are still alive.