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Forex Signals Brief June 2: Will the NFP Send USD Back Up Today?

Posted Friday, June 2, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

The USD has been advancing higher for a month now as inflation numbers were showing resilience, but yesterday we saw a considerable retreat, with most of the other trading assets taking advantage of that and pushing up. The started with the Chinese Caixin manufacturing numbers for May, which showed that the activity expanded last month, while expectations were for a contraction.

This improved risk sentiment while later the positive numbers from the US also helped risk assets such as stock markets and commodity dollars climb further. The SM manufacturing prices fell to 44.2 in May points from 53.2 in April, while the US Q1 unit labor costs were revised lower to 4.2% vs 6.0% expected. This removes the pressure from the FED and the USD slipped lower.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the economic data has been light during the Asian and European session, with the French Industrial production and Spanish Unemployment Change released a while ago. Although we have some important data to be released from the US later on, such as the Non-Farm Employment (NFP) Change which is expected to be weaker, the Unemployment Rate for May which is expected to tick higher to 3.5% and the Average Hourly Earnings.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility remained high as risk assets surged on better Chinese Caixin manufacturing, which improved the sentiment, together with lower inflation indicators from the US. The USD got beaten up and we got caught on the wrong side with two forex signals, since we were long on the USD from the day before.

 GOLD Testing the 50 Daily SMA 

Since early May, the price of Gold has been in declining after failing to push above the record high of $2,075. The decline has been consistent, with the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) acting as resistance on the daily chart. Although the 100 SMA (green) held as support and now Gold is testing the 50 SM again after the bounce off the 100 SMA.

XAU/USD – Daily chart 

EUR/USD Breaks Above the 50 SMA   

EUR/USD also turned bearish in early May as USD buyers started to come back, sending this pair to 1.06 lows yesterday. The 20 SMA (gray) and the 50 SMA (yellow) have been acting as resistance at the top where we have been selling retraces higher. Yesterday we opened another sell EUR/USD signal after many such trades closed in profit, but this one hit SL after the surge in risk currencies.

 EUR/USD – 240 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Buying the Retreat in BITCOIN

Cryptocurrencies have been gradually declining since late April. However, there was a notable shift in market sentiment over the weekend, leading to a rebound from the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart. The price briefly rose above the 50-period SMA (yellow), but it was unable to sustain that level and has since reversed downward, moving towards the 100-period SMA once again where we decided to open a buy Bitcoin signal yesterday.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

The 50 SMA Hold As Support for [Ethereum]] 

In recent weeks, the buying pressure for Ethereum has slowed down, and we have witnessed a retreat in its price over the last few days. However, the correction appears complete as the 100 SMA (green) held as support for ETH/USD and buyers pushed the price above the 50 SMA as well. Now it seems that this moving average has turned into support.

ETH/USD – Daily chart   
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