USD Higher Despite Soft Retail Sales in October
The US dollar strengthened after the release of the statistics. The reading from last month revealed that headline retail sales fell more than predicted. Despite the fact that US retail sales were lower than predicted, the US dollar remains strong in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting minutes. The FED stated that they will maintain their current monetary policy and will not change interest rates, although markets fear that they might have overinterpreted the statement and some possible hawkish comments, which sent the USD around 100 pips higher today.
Today, US data is having an impact on the market, but the currency market is more influenced by FED forecasts. Last week, unemployment claims declined from 231K to 209K, exceeding predictions of 226K. In addition, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment may rise from 60.4 to 61.1 points. However, Durable Goods Orders fell 5.0%, falling short of estimates of -3.2% after increasing by 4.6% the previous month.
GOLD pushed above $2,000 yesterday but retreated back down, with trader looking scared to hold on to their gains above that major level. Today the decline continued as traders are anticipating a slightly hawkish FED meeting minutes, but we decided to open a buy Gold signal since the trend is still bearish and XAU is finding support at MAs on different timeframes.
US Durable Goods Orders for October
- Prior month 4.7% revised to 4.0%
- Durable goods -5.4% vs -3.1% est
- Ex transportation 0.0% vs 0.1% est. Prior month revised to 0.2% from 0.5%
- Ex defense -6.7% vs 5.8% last month revised to 5.0%
- Non defense capital good ex air -0.1% vs 0.1% estimate. Prior month revised to -0.2% vs 0.6% reported
Shipments details:
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October experienced a decrease, marking a decline in three of the last four months.
- The decrease amounted to $2.4 billion or 0.9 percent, bringing the total to $280.4 billion.
- This follows a 0.6 percent decrease in September.
- The decrease was primarily led by transportation equipment, which has been down four out of the last five months.
- Specifically, transportation equipment shipments fell by $2.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $88.4 billion.
Unfilled order details:
- Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased, marking an uptrend in ten of the last eleven months.
- The increase was $4.0 billion or 0.3 percent, raising the total to $1,356.9 billion.
- This uptrend follows a 1.3 percent increase in September.
- Transportation equipment orders, also up for ten of the last eleven months, were a leading factor in this increase.
- Specifically, unfilled orders in transportation equipment rose by $3.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $859.2 billion.
Inventory details:
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October increased, marking a rise for three consecutive months.
- The increase was $1.5 billion or 0.3 percent, bringing total inventories to $525.1 billion.
- This increase comes after a 0.1 percent rise in September.
- Transportation equipment inventories, also up for three consecutive months, were a major contributor to this increase.
- Specifically, transportation equipment inventories grew by $1.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $165.9 billion.
Nondefense Capital Goods (October):
- New orders decreased by $15.8 billion or 15.6 percent to $85.3 billion.
- Shipments decreased by $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $82.9 billion.
- Unfilled orders increased by $2.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $800.7 billion.
- Inventories increased by $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $227.3 billion.
Defense Capital Goods (October):
- New orders increased by $3.1 billion or 24.5 percent to $15.6 billion.
- Shipments increased by $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $13.9 billion.
- Unfilled orders increased by $1.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $212.3 billion.
- Inventories slightly decreased by less than $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $24.2 billion.
Weaker than expected data for durable goods reverses gains from last month for the volatile release.
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