Argentinian Country risk plunges 4.4% and hits nearly 2-year lows: dollar bonds rise

Argentinian Country risk plunges 4.4% and hits nearly 2-year lows: dollar bonds rise

After the Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States, country risk hits lows not seen since April 2022.

Country risk plummeted by 4.4% and reached almost two-year lows this Tuesday, February 20th, leading to a decline in dollar-denominated bonds on Wall Street. The variation occurred after the Presidents’ Day holiday in the United States and domestically following the announcement that the government closed January with a surplus, which instilled a certain level of confidence in the market.

On the domestic front, dollar-denominated bonds are experiencing widespread increases of up to 2.4%, led by the Global 2029 bond.

In this scenario, country risk dropped by 78 units, or 4.4%, to 1,710 basis points, reaching its lowest level since April 20, 2022, when it stood at 1,701 points.

A multinational bank considered that “a new stage is approaching” for Argentina, in which a “course correction and stabilization” of the economy could be defined.

“The main challenge for the Government remains how to maintain social and political support for a stabilization plan that depends on significant fiscal adjustment and entails a significant recession,” stated HSBC bank in a report.

Additionally, it projected that inflation in 2024 will reach 210%, while the official exchange rate will close the year at $1,600.

Lastly, HSBC forecasted that GDP will decline by 2% in 2024, a setback primarily concentrated in the first half of the year.

For the international financial institution, President Javier Milei’s “reformist momentum” “got stuck in Congress and the Judiciary.”

For instance, it cited the legislative treatment of the Omnibus Law, which it described as “a significant defeat, even after stripping much of its content from the project.”

Now, HSBC has predicted that “a new stage is approaching” for the Government, characterized by the unification of the exchange market, continued accumulation of reserves, and normalization of import payments.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Ignacio Teson
Economist and Financial Analyst
Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.
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