Risk Sentiment Crawling Back after Soft JOLTS Jobs
The USD was rallying today after the decline yesterday following the soft ISM manufacturing, but it is falling again now.
The USD was rallying today after the decline yesterday following the soft ISM manufacturing, but it is falling again now and risk assets are climbing. The JOLTS Job Openings report showed another slowdown in April, continuing the weakening trend, which shows that employment is softening in the US, as well as the economy.
In the European session, the USD was gaining ground, as risk sentiment in markets deteriorated. There was no direct catalyst, but the reaction yesterday after the soft ISM manufacturing from the US was a bit overdone, with the USD falling around 100 pips across the board, so today’s move could have been an unwinding of yesterday’s move.
European stock markets fell sharply from the start, with main indices down by almost 1% but they recovered somewhat ahead of the London close. S&P 500 futures slid at the start of the US session, before rebounding back slightly. Aside from safe haven currencies such as the JPY and CHF, the USD was making some decent gains, before stalling and giving some back. Commodity currencies are bearing the brunt of the pain, with the AUD/USD in particular falling close to 1% and giving back out all of its gains of the last two trading days. The JOLTS jobs report was weaker, which is weighing on the USD right now and is improving risk sentiment in financial markets.
JOLTs Job Openings Report for April 2024
- JOLTs job openings for April 8.059M vs 8.355M estimate. Lowest level since February 2021
- Prior month 8.488 million revised to 8.355M
- Quits rate 2.2% versus 2.2% revised
- Vacancy rate 4.8% versus 5.0% revised
Details from the US Labor Department
Job Openings
- Number of job openings: 8.1 million (little change)
- Yearly decrease: 1.8 million
- Rate: 4.8% (little change)
- Decreases:
- Health care and social assistance: -204,000
- State and local government education: -59,000
- Increases:
- Private educational services: +50,000
Hires
- Number of hires: 5.6 million (little change)
- Rate: 3.6% (unchanged)
- Increases:
- Durable goods manufacturing: +52,000
- Decreases:
- Arts, entertainment, and recreation: -45,000
- Federal government: -8,000
Separations
- Total separations: 5.4 million (little change)
- Rate: 3.4% (unchanged)
- Increase:
- Durable goods manufacturing: +49,000
Quits
- Number of quits: 3.5 million (little change)
- Rate: 2.2% (sixth month in a row)
- Decreases:
- Professional and business services: -131,000
- Increases:
- Other services: +67,000
- Durable goods manufacturing: +39,000
- State and local government education: +32,000
Layoffs and Discharges
- Number: 1.5 million (little change)
- Rate: 1.0% (unchanged)
- Decrease:
- Arts, entertainment, and recreation: -37,000
Other Separations
- Number: 349,000 (little change)
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