USD Consolidates As Jobless Claims Confirm Stable US Employment

The USD dived hard as employment started to show signs of weakness, with the NFP report declining, but last week’s Unemployment Claims calmed the markets. However, yesterday’s NFP revisions were lowered by more than 800K, which raised some concerns again, although the revisions don’t take into account the undocumented but employed immigrants. Today’s report confirmed that US employment remains at decent levels, which has stabilized the USD after a massive decline.

At 12:30 GMT, the initial jobless claims were anticipated to be 230K, but they slightly exceeded expectations, coming in at 232K, up from the previous week’s 227K. The slight increase in jobless claims suggests a minor uptick in layoffs. However, the focus was also on the 4-week moving average, which remained stable at the revised lower levels from last week—a positive sign indicating that the overall trend in layoffs is still relatively steady and not showing signs of significant deterioration. This stability in the labor market suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the broader employment landscape remains resilient.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week of August 11-17, 2024

• Initial Jobless Claims 232K (vs. 230K expected)
• Previous week’s claims were revised to 227K
• Continuing Claims: 1.863 million (vs. 1.867 million expected)
• Prior week’s Continuing Claims revised to 1.859 million from 1.864 million

The latest U.S. jobless claims data indicates a slightly higher-than-expected increase in initial claims, rising to 232K compared to the expected 230K. This suggests a marginal uptick in layoffs but remains within a stable range, indicating no significant deterioration in the labor market. Continuing claims also came in slightly lower than expected, reflecting steady employment conditions. Overall, the data points to a resilient labor market, with no immediate signs of significant weakening.

EUR/USD Live Chart