Oil Prices Remain at Two-Week Lows Amid Demand Concerns.

Brent futures fell by 3 cents, or 0.04%, to $74.22 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 19 cents, or 0.27%, to $70.39.

On Wednesday, oil prices remained near two-week lows after plunging around 7% over the past three days, driven by forecasts of slower crude demand growth and easing concerns that conflicts in the Middle East will disrupt supply.

Both benchmarks closed at their lowest levels since October 2 for the second consecutive day.

Crude prices have fallen this week in response to weaker demand expectations and media reports suggesting that Israel would refrain from attacking Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, reducing fears of supply interruptions.

Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produced approximately 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The country is projected to export about 1.5 million bpd in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million bpd this year.

USOIL

Iran supports several groups involved in conflicts with Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. However, concerns remain about a potential escalation between Israel and Hezbollah.

OPEC+ supply cuts, which are set to remain in place until December, will also influence the market. At that point, some members are expected to begin easing production curbs.

In terms of demand, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down their global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024, with much of the downgrade attributed to China.

The IEA predicts that global oil demand will peak before 2030, reaching just under 102 million bpd, and decline to 99 million bpd by 2035.

China’s recent economic stimulus has done little to support oil prices. Local media reported that the Chinese government might issue an additional 6 trillion yuan ($850 billion) in special Treasury bonds over the next three years to revive its slowing economy.

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Ignacio Teson
Ignacio Teson
Economist and Financial Analyst
Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.
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