Forex Signals Brief October 29: Looking at US JOLTS Jobs for Clues on Employment
Today the economic calendar is heating up, while yesterday it was empty and price action was slow, with most assets trading in a tight range, apart from the Yen, which continued to display immense volatility. General elections in Japan didn’t produce a clear winner, which sent USD/JPY close to 154, but it retraced lower again.
European markets closed on a positive note, with indices gaining around 0.70% for the day. In the U.S., major stock indices also ended higher, even though they settled closer to the day’s lows. Despite this, markets kicked off the week in positive territory, with strength across multiple sectors providing support.
The DOW Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, boosted by solid performances in industrial and financial stocks. The S&P500 saw a modest increase of 0.3%, reflecting steady interest in tech and healthcare. The Nasdaq Composite edged up by 0.3%, showing resilience in the technology sector. The standout of the day was the Russell 2000, which surged by 1.6% as investors looked toward small-cap stocks. This gain points to a growing interest in sectors poised for domestic growth, suggesting a shift in market sentiment toward more localized economic strength.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today the main focus today is the US JOLTS Job Openings report, which is expected to show a slight decrease from 8.04 million to 7.99 million openings. Hiring and layoff rates have remained steady in recent reports, though the quit rate has seen a notable drop. This suggests that while job availability is tightening, the likelihood of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs is also lower.
Another key release is US Consumer Confidence, forecasted to rise to 99.3 points from 98.7. The most recent report saw a considerable miss, with a decline across all five components. According to Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, “Consumer confidence fell in September to nearly the bottom of the narrow range that has dominated over the past two years.” This drop was the largest since August 2021, driven by weaker consumer perceptions of both the labor market and overall business conditions. Consumers are also increasingly pessimistic about future business and income prospects, which adds a cautious tone to the labor market outlook.
Yesterday the price action in most financial assets was slow, so we traded mostly with short term signals. We opened 8 trading signals in total, but ended the day with 5 closed trades, all of them being winning forex signals. We also issued sell signals on commodity dollars after the disappointing Industrial Profits in China, but they missed the take profit target narrowly.
The 50 SMA Keeps Supporting Gold
Last week, gold reached a new peak at $2,758 following early-week investment activity. Despite a mid-week pullback of $50, gold has surged over 30% this year, maintaining solid performance throughout 2024. Currently stabilizing above $2,700, recent upward movement suggests that gold (XAU) could soon set new record highs, with the 50 SMA (yellow) acting as support on the H4 chart.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
The 50 SMA Keeps GBP/USD Subdued
The GBP/USD pair fell below 1.30 early last week, facing resistance at this level even as it briefly recovered from lows near 1.29. A bearish reversal by Friday sent the pair down to 1.2960, reflecting limited appetite to push the pound higher amid persistent weakness in the UK economy. Although the dollar softened in yesterday’s European session, GBP gains were limited, with the 50 SMA on the H4 chart acting as resistance, rejecting the price again.
GBP/USD – H4 Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Back at $70K Again, Looking at Record Highs
Bitcoin, which had been trending down since April, dropped from over $70,000 to around $50,000 by August. Following a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, Bitcoin regained strength, climbing above $70,000 this week before settling near $65,000. This recent move, though within its prior range, signals potential for a breakout.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Climbs Above $2,500
Ethereum has also seen robust buying activity, with prices pushing above the 100-day SMA to reach $2,700 in October. After a brief pullback on Tuesday, Ethereum found support around the 50-day SMA and has recovered above $2,500, signaling continued support and resilience within its current trend.
ETH/USD – Daily chart