USD Dips As Lower JOLTS Jobs Bring Back US Employment Worries
The US jobs sector has been giving positive signals lately, but the JOLTS jobs numbers showed a tumble in September which is hurting the USD
The US jobs sector has been giving positive signals lately, however today’s JOLTS job opening numbers showed a tumble in September which is hurting the USD in the US session. The job openings fell below 8 million last month, the lowest level since April 2021, however this report might have been impacted by the hurricane in the US, so the decline in the USD hasn’t been too pronounced.
US JOLTs Job Openings Report for September
- Current Job Openings: 7.443 million, below the 8.000 million estimate
- Previous Month: Revised down from 8.040 million to 7.861 million
- Lowest Level: Job openings at their lowest since January 2021
- Vacancy Rate: 4.5%, down from 4.7% last month (revised from 4.8%)
- Quits Rate: 1.9%, down from 2.0% (revised from 1.9%) last month
- Separations Rate: Unavailable for this report, but previously noted at 3.1%
Details on Job Openings:
- Job openings decreased by 1.9 million year-over-year
- Job openings rate stands at 4.5%
- Decreases in Job Openings:
- Health Care and Social Assistance: -178,000
- State and Local Government (excluding education): -79,000
- Federal Government: -28,000
- Increases in Job Openings:
- Finance and Insurance: +85,000
Hires: Remained stable at 5.6 million, with a rate of 3.5%.
Separations: Steady but down compared to last year.
- Total separations held at 5.2 million in September, a decrease of 326,000 over the year.
- Total separations rate remains at 3.3%.
Quits: Steady but also down year-over-year.
- Remained at 3.1 million, down by 525,000 from last year.
- Quits rate unchanged at 1.9%.
- Decreases: Observed in professional and business services (-94,000).
- Increases: Noted in State and Local Government (excluding education: +22,000) and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (+18,000).
Layoffs and Discharges: Steady but increased compared to last year.
- Stable at 1.8 million, up by 238,000 over the year.
- Layoffs and discharges rate rose to 1.2%.
- Increases in Layoffs: Durable Goods Manufacturing: +46,000
- Decreases in Layoffs: State and Local Government (excluding education: -20,000).
Other Separations: Remained little changed at 292,000 in September.
Employment Revisions for August:
- August job openings revised down by 179,000 to 7.9 million
- Hires revised up by 118,000 to 5.4 million
- Total separations revised up by 171,000 to 5.2 million
- Quits revised up by 94,000 to 3.2 million
- Layoffs and discharges revised up by 60,000 to 1.7 million
EUR/USD Climbed back above 1.08 from 1.0760s, but it is stalling there, with the highs continuing to fall, while commodity dollars didn’t show any signs of life and continue to slip lower. Overall, the mixed data points indicate a fluctuating job market with ongoing challenges in certain sectors. This month’s notable rise in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator led to volatility in the US dollar, reacting to both the JOLTS report and consumer confidence data.
In the hierarchy of economic indicators, consumer confidence and JOLTS are closely aligned, but consumer confidence generally carries more weight as a forward-looking measure. Recently, Federal Reserve officials have frequently referenced the decline in job openings from the JOLTS report as a rationale for potential rate cuts. With job openings now back to levels last seen in 2020, it suggests that interest rates are likely to continue their downward trend.
EUR/USD Live Chart
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