Forex Signals Brief November 29: Eurozone CPI and Swiss GDP Close the Week
Yesterday US markets were closed for Thanksgiving, today the Eurozone CPI inflation and Swiss GDP report highlight the day in the European session.
Yesterday’s market activity was relatively subdued, with major forex pairs trading in narrow ranges. European equities, which have struggled over the past two days, are looking for a recovery today. While Germany’s DAX has shown resilience, most other regional indices have faced challenges throughout the month, reflecting broader market uncertainty.
Gold moved slightly higher during the session but remains constrained within its short-term range. The price closed the day higher by 0.4% at $2,645, though it is still below its 100-hour moving average of approximately $2,650. Meanwhile, oil prices saw a modest increase following news that the OPEC+ online meeting has been postponed until next week. This delay has sparked speculation that the bloc is taking additional time to deliberate on whether to postpone January’s scheduled production increase.
Today’s Market Expectations
In the Eurozone, inflation data has taken center stage. Expectations suggest that core CPI (year-over-year) will rise to 2.9% from the previous 2.7%, while headline CPI (year-over-year) is forecasted to climb to 2.4% from 2.0%. Friday’s disappointing Eurozone PMI figures have already shifted market expectations, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in December increasing from 20% to 60%. However, a smaller 25 basis point cut remains possible if inflation surprises to the upside. Without such a surprise, the likelihood of either outcome at the December meeting remains evenly split at 50/50. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious as investors navigate central bank policy expectations, inflation dynamics, and geopolitical developments, with limited momentum driving decisive moves in major asset classes.
Yesterday markets quietened down after experiencing some heightened volatility recently, as the USD retreated, which kept most forex pairs trading in a tight range. The forex signals from the previous days remained mostly open, apart from two trading signals in Gold and Dow Jones, which saw some activity.
Gold Bounce Fails
During yesterday’s Middle East peace talks, gold experienced a sharp $100 drop but has since stabilized above $2,600. The volatility in gold prices highlights ongoing market uncertainty, further exacerbated by Donald Trump’s announcement of potential tariffs on imports from Canada, China, and Mexico. Despite these pressures, strong U.S. economic data helped gold regain its footing as traders remain cautious about the broader implications of recent trade developments.
XAU/USD – Daily Chart
GBP/USD Facing the 200 Daily SMA
In the forex market, the USD/CAD pair has been on a bullish trajectory over the past two months, climbing approximately 7 cents and breaking above the 1.40 level earlier this month. During retracement phases, the 20 SMA (gray) consistently provided support, enabling the pair to maintain higher lows. Amid a broader decline in the U.S. dollar, USD/CAD surged to a four-year high of 1.4177 before retracing to 1.40. Improved market sentiment, driven by a recovery in U.S. stock indices and a rebound in equities, has also contributed to easing pressure on the pair. On the H4 chart, the current decline found support near the 50 SMA (yellow), halting further losses. The stochastic indicator revealed oversold conditions, signaling a potential bullish reversal and suggesting the retracement phase might be nearing its end.
GBP/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Heads to 100K Again
Bitcoin, meanwhile, faced selling pressure toward the end of the day. Earlier this week, it dipped close to $90,000, but the cryptocurrency has shown signs of stabilization during the quieter U.S. Thanksgiving trading period. Investors’ focus has shifted to digital assets amid reduced market volatility. Today, Bitcoin is down around 3%, or $3,110, trading near $94,950. Despite this pullback, the broader trend remains bullish. Following Tuesday’s dip to $90,638, Bitcoin has rebounded and remains within striking distance of the pivotal $100,000 level, keeping investor optimism alive.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Climbs Above $3,500
Ethereum mirrored Bitcoin’s volatility, briefly dipping below $3,000 before recovering to $3,500. Bitcoin’s recent $400 surge and its return above the 50-day SMA underscore its technical resilience and highlight growing confidence in digital assets. While cryptocurrencies remain inherently volatile, the current trends indicate a more favorable outlook for the sector and increasing investor trust in the digital asset market.
ETH/USD – Daily chart
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