Crude Oil Price Outlook: China’s Factory Optimism and Middle East Tensions Boost WTI Prices

Oil up on China’s factory activity. A private survey showed manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in 5 months in November, following recent stimulus measures.

WTI up 0.13% at $68.33 as market waits for China’s industrial recovery to continue.

IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said “China’s manufacturing rebound is a boost for oil demand, so stimulus is working early”

Middle East Tensions Rekindle Supply Concerns

Middle East tensions add to oil market complexity. Despite the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, fresh airstrikes and regional unrest is threatening supply. Lebanon’s health ministry reported injuries from Israeli strikes in the south, while Syria’s President Assad vowed to crush the insurgents.

Traders are now looking to OPEC+ meeting on December 5 where they will discuss delaying the January production increase. Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, said “OPEC+ can use the delay to assess the geopolitical landscape and supply risks before making output decisions.”

WTI Crude Oil: Technical Outlook

WTI crude oil continues to face pressure after breaking below its pivot point at $69.02, signaling persistent bearish momentum. The price remains confined within a descending triangle pattern, suggesting the likelihood of further declines unless a breakout above $69.68 materializes.

• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance lies at $69.68, followed by $70.26 and $71.21.

• Support Levels: Immediate support is at $67.84, with further downside potential at $67.29 and $66.59.

• Technical Indicators: The RSI is at 46.49, reflecting a neutral to bearish sentiment. The 50-day EMA aligns with the pivot point at $69.02, reinforcing overhead resistance.

A sustained move below $67.84 could intensify selling pressure, while a breakout above $69.68 would signal a reversal and open the door for higher levels.

Key Takeaways:

• China’s Rebound: November’s strong factory growth underpins hopes for stable oil demand.

• Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions heighten concerns over potential supply disruptions.

• Bearish Technical Momentum: WTI crude struggles below $69.02, with RSI and triangle patterns indicating further downside risks.

Oil prices remain at a critical juncture, with fundamental and technical factors shaping market sentiment. Traders will be closely watching OPEC+’s policy decision and geopolitical developments for clearer direction.