WTI Oil Prices Climb 1.4% as China and U.S. Data Signal Stronger Demand in 2025

WTI Crude Oil prices edged up on Monday in thin holiday trading, bolstered by expectations of stronger demand from the world’s largest oil consumers,

China and the U.S. Both contracts rose 1.4% last week, driven by a significant drawdown in U.S. crude inventories. The year-end holiday season, combined with refiners ramping up activity, has further supported fuel demand.

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Optimism surrounding China’s economic recovery remains a key factor. Recent reports suggest Chinese authorities plan to issue a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025, aimed at reviving growth. Analysts predict that these measures could significantly boost crude oil consumption, aligning with the country’s status as the largest oil importer.

Ryan Fitzmaurice, a senior commodity strategist at Marex, noted, “Global oil consumption reached an all-time high in 2024 despite China underperforming expectations. Heading into 2025, lower interest rates and improved Chinese economic data should support continued growth in oil demand.”

Key Economic Indicators to Watch

1. Chinese Stimulus and Oil Import Quotas

China has issued 152.49 million metric tons of crude oil import quotas to independent refiners for 2025, signaling robust demand in the upcoming year. The World Bank has also raised its economic growth forecast for China, citing optimism surrounding stimulus measures. However, risks remain, with the property sector and weak consumer confidence posing challenges.

2. U.S. and Chinese Data in Focus

Traders are keeping a close eye on China’s PMI factory surveys due Tuesday and the U.S. ISM manufacturing survey scheduled for Friday. These data points are expected to provide insights into industrial activity, which directly impacts oil demand trends.

3. Geopolitical and European Gas Dynamics

In Europe, declining hopes for a new gas transit deal with Russia have analysts predicting increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. This shift could further tighten global energy markets, indirectly supporting oil prices.

Technical Outlook: WTI Crude Oil

WTI Crude Oil is trading near $70.61, consolidating below the immediate pivot point at $70.77. The RSI at 60.94 indicates moderate bullish momentum, while the 50 EMA at $70.10 provides dynamic support.

WTI Oil Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
WTI Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

A breakout above $70.77 could target $71.37 and $71.95, while a drop below $70.10 may test support levels at $69.29 and $68.46.

Key Levels:

  • Pivot Point: $70.77

  • Resistance: $71.37, $71.95

  • Support: $70.10, $69.29, $68.46

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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