The tariff delays contributed to USD weakness, boosting the euro and allowing EUR/USD to recover from near-parity levels. Over the past week, the euro outperformed all major currencies, gaining four cents to a four-month high above 1.08. Notably, EUR/USD broke above all major daily moving averages for the first time since November, signaling a potential shift in market momentum.
btc-usd
Forex Signals Brief March 11: US Jobs Unlikely to Calm Stock Market Volatility
Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, March 11, 2025•3 min read
Today we have the US JOLTS jobs report, but it’s unlikely to stop the stock market rout if the larger sentiment remains negative.
The stock market experienced a sharp downturn yesterday, though risky assets outside of equities fared relatively well. Despite the Nasdaq teetering on its worst day since 2022, the FX market remained stable. Nasdaq fell around 4%, while thee S&P 500 lost 2.7% of the value, however we saw some sort of rebound before the US market close.
There were no major economic reports or significant statements, but the Japanese yen emerged as the main beneficiary of risk aversion, strengthening across the board. USD/JPY dropped as low as 146.64, while EUR/USD remained steady around 1.08. Meanwhile, gold declined nearly $25, closing below the $2,900 mark once again.
The tech sector was hit hardest, particularly AI chipmakers, with some stocks suffering double-digit losses. The selloff extended broadly across the industry, with seven major companies taking heavy hits, including Apple, which dropped 5%, and Tesla, which plunged 11%. Market uncertainty remains a key issue, fueled in part by ambiguity surrounding Donald Trump’s economic stance.
Recent remarks from him suggested a willingness to accept a recession, compounding investor concerns. Additionally, looming battles in Congress over tax cuts, tariffs, and the federal budget are adding to market instability. However, later in the day, there was a brief wave of optimism when Trump reportedly made calls to prevent a government shutdown.
Today’s Market Expectations
In Australia, consumer confidence weakened slightly, with the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index slipping to 86.9 from 87.7 the previous week. A reading below 100 indicates that pessimism outweighs optimism. ANZ analysts suggested that the drop in confidence might partly reflect the lingering effects of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, alongside broader economic conditions. Despite this decline, confidence remains 1.8 points higher since the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last rate cut.
On the labor market front, JOLTS job openings in the U.S. are expected to rise to 7.71 million, up from the previous 7.60 million. Despite a 500K decline in openings in December, demand for labor appeared to stabilize in late 2024, with job postings generally increasing in the fourth quarter.
Analysts note that the post-pandemic trend of job switching has faded, while hiring and quit rates have flattened, hinting at a possible turning point. While this week’s data isn’t expected to show drastic shifts, ongoing economic policy uncertainty could weigh on both hiring decisions and job-seeker activity as businesses and workers assess recent policy changes.
Yesterday the volatility in some markets such as equities and cryptocurrencies was pretty high, and we saw a coupe of reversals in forex and commodities such as Gold and crude Oil. That got traders on the wrong foot and we had three losing signals, however we closed 4 winning forex signals as well, after 7 trades during yesterday.
Gold Returns Below 2,900
Gold, which had sharply declined in February, briefly regained momentum, reclaiming the $2,900 level before pulling back. It continues to attract strong demand in both risk-on and risk-off market conditions but has struggled to sustain new highs. The precious metal climbed past $2,915 over the past two days, with buyers stepping in near the key $2,832 support level.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
The 100 Daily SMA Stops the Surge in EUR/USD
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Breaks Below the 200 Daily SMA
Cryptocurrency markets have been highly volatile, largely influenced by uncertainty surrounding international trade regulations and tariffs. Bitcoin initially rebounded to $95,000 after Donald Trump announced the creation of a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve, which includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA). The 200-day simple moving average provided support during this brief rally, but market reaction remained cautious as traders awaited further policy details. Selling pressure quickly resumed, and Bitcoin fell back below the 200-day SMA by Tuesday of last week. As bearish momentum intensified, Bitcoin dropped under $80,000, breaking February’s low of $78,500 to reach its weakest level since November 11.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ripple XRP Heads for $2 Again
Following Trump’s announcement that Ripple, Solana, and Cardano would be added to the national crypto reserve, XRP initially surged 50%. However, despite spiking toward $3, it failed to sustain momentum and sharply fell back to $2.2150. The broader recovery in risk assets later helped XRP climb back to $2.50, but for further upside, a break above $3 is necessary. If XRP fails to hold above $2.20, another wave of selling could push it closer to the $2 mark, where it currently faces strong pressure.
XRP/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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