Quick overview

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While tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to dominate the global agenda, chief investment officers at Goldman Sachs Asset Management say investors should focus on three structural themes shaping markets: commodities, a potential new cycle of major IPOs, and Japan’s economic transformation.

Global financial markets are still moving in line with the escalation in the Middle East and the volatility in oil prices. However, the firm argues that beyond the immediate geopolitical backdrop, longer-term forces are beginning to play a growing role in the performance of assets.

According to the bank’s CIOs, the rising importance of commodities at the intersection of artificial intelligence and energy security, the potential launch of a new wave of large initial public offerings, and the structural shift underway in Japan could become key themes for investors.

Commodities: the impact of AI and energy

One of the central themes highlighted by the firm is the renewed importance of commodities. The expansion of artificial intelligence is driving rising demand for energy and infrastructure, creating a structural shift in these markets.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions—including the conflict in the Middle East—and supply bottlenecks are reinforcing the role of commodities as portfolio hedges.

In this environment, higher energy prices not only affect commodities such as oil and gas but also raise production costs for industrial metals like aluminum, adding pressure to global supply chains.

Credit and volatility: selective opportunities

Goldman Sachs also notes that despite global uncertainty, credit fundamentals remain relatively solid. Default rates, in particular, continue to track close to historical averages, suggesting that markets are broadly pricing risk appropriately.

In this context, the dispersion in spreads across different credit qualities—with wider spreads in lower-rated assets—creates opportunities for active strategies.

Recent volatility, rather than being purely a risk factor, could allow investors to capture value in sectors that have been excessively punished, such as software.

Mega IPOs: the return of large listings

Another key focus is the potential start of a new cycle of mega initial public offerings, driven largely by companies linked to artificial intelligence.

The bank expects several leading firms to enter the public markets in the coming quarters, supported by strong investment from major technology players. However, it cautions that financial volatility and macroeconomic risks could affect both the timing and the scale of these offerings.

Japan: a structural shift

Finally, the CIOs highlight the structural shift underway in Japan, characterized by a tighter labor market and a rising interest-rate environment.

This represents a break from decades of deflation and could create new opportunities for global investors, as the country begins to show signs of broader economic normalization.