Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Faces Weakest Halving Cycle on Record, Ethereum Eyes Breakout Amid DeFi Turbulence

Quick overview

Bitcoin’s BTC/USD current post-halving cycle is dramatically underperforming historical patterns while Ethereum ETH/USD flips key technical resistance and attracts its strongest institutional inflows in months — all as DeFi exploits and regulatory tensions rattle the broader crypto landscape.

Crypto Market Developments

This week, the crypto market is dealing with a lot of different signals. Senator Elizabeth Warren of the United States has accused SEC Chair Paul Atkins of possibly misleading Congress after the agency’s own enforcement data showed that activity had declined to its lowest level in more than 20 years. Warren’s letter, which cites data made public on April 7, goes against Atkins’ prior statement at a February hearing that he was “not sure” what data the Senator was talking about. Warren now deems this a very misleading diversion.

The DeFi space took another hit when the liquid restaking protocol Kelp was hacked over the weekend, losing almost $293 million and causing the platform to stop smart contracts on its restaking currency (rsETH). Michael Egorov, the inventor of Curve Finance, said that non-isolated lending, in which various tokens share a same collateral pool, increases the risk of systemic contagion in the larger DeFi ecosystem. He told DeFi teams to check digital assets more carefully before letting them be used as collateral for loans.

RaveDAO’s RAVE token jumped from about $0.25 to about $28 in just a few days, adding to the commotion in the market. Then it crashed by more than 80%. The project said it had nothing to do with the price movement, but onchain investigator ZachXBT said it was a pump-and-dump operation and that insiders might control more than 90% of the token supply. Both Binance and Bitget have said they are looking into the trading activity.

Bitcoin Holds Above $74,000 After Weekend Rally and Dip

The main cryptocurrency is selling at roughly $74,700, which is almost 5% more than it was a week ago. But the data shows us more about the current market cycle. Alex Thorn, who is in charge of Galaxy’s research for the whole company, said that the 2024 halving cycle is “dramatically” worse than any of the ones that came before it. Bitcoin’s all-time high of just over $125,000, attained in October 2025, was only a 97% increase from the halving price. This is a little gain compared to the 761% increase in the 2020 cycle, the 2,950% increase in 2016, and the incredible 9,294% increase after the 2012 halving. The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which hit a high of 9.64% in April 2020, has not gone beyond 3.11% this whole cycle and is now at 1.75%.

Some people who don’t like my analysis point to a notable outlier: Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of almost $70,000 in March 2024, a full month before the April halving. my was mostly because US spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024. This early peak in price makes it hard to compare cycles. Fidelity Digital Assets also says that drawdowns have gotten less severe. For example, Bitcoin’s latest drop to $60,000 is just about 50% less than its peak, which is much less than the 80–90% falls that happened in prior bad markets. Jan van Eck, the CEO of VanEck, has said that Bitcoin is near to its lowest point and may start to slowly rise again in 2026.

Ethereum Ready for a Rally Higher?

Ethereum is showing its most promising technical setup in months, with the ETH price climbing back above $2,300 — a level that analysts say is critical for the next leg higher. Three things that are coming together, according to crypto analyst Ash Crypto, are that Ethereum has broken back above its 100-day simple moving average for the first time since November 2025, a resistance zone that had been hard to break through has now become support, and the price has broken above an ascending triangle pattern that formed off February lows. Ash Crypto says that Ethereum can keep going higher as long as it stays above the $2,300 mark. The price of ETH is currently between $2,316 and $2,338.

There has been a big change in how institutions and the derivatives market act, which supports the technical case. US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $275.83 million in weekly inflows, their best week since mid-January, which suggests that institutions are interested again. More interestingly, derivatives data recorded by CryptoQuant researcher Darkfost shows that net taker volume has turned positive for the first time this cycle, with buy-side pressure of +$102 million. This change is important since the last time Ethereum had this much purchasing pressure on futures markets was during the bear market of 2022, when ETH was trading at $1,000. Looking back, this was a time before a big recovery.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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