Silver Reclaims $78 Trendline as US-Iran Uncertainty Creates Mixed Signals – $80 Breakout Next?

Quick overview

Silver (XAG/USD) is up slightly today, regaining some ground after recent swings and staying between $78 and $79.50. Early in the session, it climbed about 2 to 2.5%, rebounding from Monday’s lower prices.

Key Drivers Today

• Mixed US-Iran news: President Trump extended the ceasefire, which briefly eased worries about oil supply. Still, the next round of peace talks did not happen because Iran refused to attend, so uncertainty remains about the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are still high, which has brought back inflation concerns and strengthened the US dollar. Both factors weigh on silver, even though ongoing geopolitical risks give it some safe-haven appeal.
• Macro factors: Rising energy costs are pushing up inflation expectations, making the Fed’s policy decisions more complicated and limiting gains for precious metals. Silver’s price is still closely linked to oil swings and the strength of the dollar.

Underlying Fundamentals

The silver market is in its sixth year of a supply shortage, with strong demand from solar, electric vehicles, electronics, and AI infrastructure helping support prices over the long term. COMEX inventories remain tight, adding to concerns about physical supply. However, short-term price moves are still driven more by news headlines than by these fundamentals.

Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $78.99 and keeps testing a strong support zone between $78.00 and $78.10, which has seen several reactions. This area matches the 50-period moving average at $78.09 and is just above the 200-period moving average at $77.50, creating a solid technical base.

The price is still moving within an upward channel, with higher lows forming along the trendline. Recent candlesticks have smaller bodies and wicks on both ends, showing the market is consolidating after moving toward the $83.00 resistance. The repeated rebounds from $78 suggest buyers are protecting this level, but the absence of strong bullish candles shows some hesitation.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $80.37 → $82.96
• Support: $77.50 → $75.49

Trade idea: Consider buying if silver breaks above $80.40, aiming for a target of $82.90, with a stop set below $77.50.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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