Trump Extends US-Iran but Markets Stay Nervous as Oil Risk Lingers

Quick overview

President Trump announced an open-ended break in hostilities between the US and Iran on April 21,2026 , at Pakistan’s behest – all in an effort to prevent an immediate flare-up of violence as the two week ceasefire was due to run out on April 22.

The Current State of US-Iran-Pakistan Talks

• Pakistan (under PM Shehbaz Sharif) is acting as a go-between and hosting potential second round of talks in Islamabad, but progress is all but stalled due to one major stumbling block.
• We have Iran refusing to send any representatives to the talks until the US lifts its blockade on Iranian shipping ports – meanwhile a planned visit to Islamabad from US Vice President JD Vance has been put on ice.
• Iran has taken matters into its own hands and fired on ships in the Hormuz Strait, making a difficult situation even more complicated.

The fact that the ceasefire has been extended does give diplomacy a bit of breathing room , but it’s clear that both sides remain dug in and unwilling to budge from their hardline positions.

TRUMP EXTENDS IRAN CEASEFIRE INDEFINITELY, OIL FALLS BELOW $90

President Trump has extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, reversing his morning position that he did not want to prolong the truce and was "ready to resume bombing" if no deal was reached. US naval blockade… pic.twitter.com/VxBKuqgj6g

— BSCN (@BSCNews) April 21, 2026

Market Sentiment and Reaction

Markets have responded to the ceasefire extension by showing a cautious optimism – US futures have risen a little (S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures up by as much as 0.4-0.6%) as immediate danger has been temporarily averted. Still, there’s still a lot of uncertainty out there – particularly around the Hormuz Strait, the US blockade and the Iranian ship attacks.

• The short term trend is firmly feeling risk on (equities and risk assets are bouncing back on hopes for peace) – but it’s still a very volatile market.
• Everyone’s hanging on to their energy and safe-haven assets in case of any new developments or if the talks come to nothing.
• Investors are still very cautious right now – not least because of the risk of inflation if oil supplies are disrupted for weeks on end.

To be honest, the whole US-Iran thing is still driving market moves – and people aren’t willing to take on much risk until there’s a real breakthrough.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

S&P 500 Hits New All-Time High at 7,022 as US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fuel Risk-On Rally

6 days ago

Save

US Futures Drop as Oil Hits $100 and War Fears Spike

1 week ago

Save

US-Iran Peace Talks Begin in Islamabad Today – Will They Extend the Ceasefire or Spark Renewed Escalation?

2 weeks ago

Save