Sasol Share Price Reaches 3-Year High as Uptrend Takes Form with Renewable Diesel Certification
Sasol shares are rising again as balance sheet improvements and volatile oil prices draw renewed investor interest.
Quick overview
- Sasol shares have rebounded nearly 5% after holding a key technical support level, indicating renewed investor confidence.
- The company's performance is closely linked to rising oil prices, which have surged above $107 due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns.
- Sasol's proactive financial management, including debt restructuring, has strengthened its balance sheet and improved liquidity.
- Despite recent gains, the company's financial performance remains sensitive to oil price fluctuations, highlighting ongoing risks.
Sasol shares are rising again as balance sheet improvements and volatile oil prices draw renewed investor interest.
Strong Rebound as Support Holds
Sasol shares have staged a solid recovery after holding a key technical support level, gaining nearly 5% and extending their upward move. The rebound signals improving market sentiment, with investors stepping back in following a recent period of weakness.
This price action suggests confidence is returning, even as global markets remain uncertain.
Oil Volatility Provides a Tailwind
Sasol’s performance remains closely tied to oil prices, particularly West Texas Intermediate crude.
- Oil recently surged above $107 amid geopolitical tensions
- Supply concerns continue to support elevated price levels
- Energy stocks, including Sasol, are benefiting from this backdrop
Higher oil prices directly improve revenue potential, making Sasol more attractive in the current environment.
Strategic Role Gains Importance
Sasol’s position in energy security is drawing attention again. Its coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids technologies provide alternative fuel production capabilities, particularly valuable during global supply disruptions.
The company is also making progress in sustainability, with certifications achieved at Natref and Secunda operations, reinforcing its role in the evolving energy landscape.
Strong Rebound After Testing Key Support
Shares of Sasol have staged a notable recovery after pulling back to the R200 level on the JSE. That support zone attracted buyers, triggering a sharp rebound of more than 10% in just two trading sessions.
The move has helped re-establish the short-term uptrend, suggesting renewed investor confidence. However, sentiment remains cautious, with traders still mindful of ongoing volatility and mixed forecasts across the energy market.
SOLJ Chart Daily – The 20 SMA Has Been Broken
While now the R200 has turned into support, where the 20 daily SMA (gray) stands, supporting the uptrend further.
Technical Levels Come Back Into Focus
From a technical standpoint, Sasol’s chart suggests a trend reversal in 2026 after being bearish since 2022. In August, the stock successfully reclaimed its 50-week simple moving average (yellow), reigniting buying interest and confirming a medium-term trend shift.
That level, currently around R100, has since acted as a key support zone and it held strong despite the temporary piercing below it.
SOLJ Chart Weekly – The 200 SMA Has Turned Into Support
The 100-week moving average (green) which rejected the bounces higher twice was broken in February and last week the 200 weekly SMA (purple) was broken too as buyers pushed the price above R200 level and seems like the 200 SMA has turned into support now, reinforcing the upside bias.
SOLJ Chart Monthly – Facing the 100 SMA As Resistance
On the monthly chart above the 20 SMA (gray) was acting as a resistance indicator, which rejected the price but we saw a clear break last month and turned into support. In March, buyers broke the 50 monthly SMA (yellow) and they are heading to the 100 SMA (green) now. Of it is broken, it would leave only the 200 SMA (purple) as the last resistance above R320.
Debt Restructuring Strengthens Balance Sheet
A key driver behind renewed investor confidence is Sasol’s proactive financial management.
- Completed a $416 million buyback of 2028 notes
- Issued new senior notes due 2033
- Launched a tender offer for 2029 notes
These steps demonstrate a disciplined refinancing strategy, improving liquidity and reducing long-term financial risk.
Earnings Highlight Ongoing Risks
Despite the recent rally, financial performance remains sensitive to oil price cycles.
Net income for the six months to December 2025 fell sharply to R241 million from R4.6 billion a year earlier, impacted by weaker oil prices and operational challenges, including a R3 billion impairment.
However, positive free cash flow and reduced capital expenditure helped stabilize the business.
Sasol 2025 Earnings Report
📊 Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDA:
- Declined 12% YoY to R21 billion
- Impacted by weaker commodity prices and a stronger rand
Cost Discipline:
- Cash fixed costs down 2% to R34 billion
- Capital expenditure reduced 43% to R8.5 billion
Free Cash Flow:
- Positive R0.8 billion
- First positive FCF in four years
- Improvement of more than 100% versus the prior period
Impairments:
- Total impairments of R7.8 billion
- R3.0bn (Secunda)
- R3.9bn (Mozambique PSA)
- R0.5bn (CTT)
- EBIT declined 52%
Net Debt:
- Stood at US$3.8 billion
- Slightly above long-term target of below US$3 billion
- Year-end target set below US$3.7 billion
⚙️ Operations & Safety
- Management highlighted safety focus following a fatal incident
- Secunda production increased 10%
- De-stoning plant now operating at full capacity
- Gas startup delays and revised PSA volumes slowed monetization
- Throughput remained constrained despite operational improvements
🌱 Grow and Transform Strategy
- Over 1.2 GW of renewables contracted toward 2 GW by 2030 target
- Secured approximately 9 million tonnes of carbon offsets
- Zaffra JV awarded EUR 350 million grant
- Targeting ~2,000 barrels per day eSAF production
- First production expected around 2030
Operational Improvements Support Outlook
Operationally, Sasol is showing signs of improvement.
- Enhanced coal quality at Secunda has boosted production output
- The recovery of the Natref refinery has improved fuel supply capacity
- Fuel sales expectations for 2026 have been revised higher
Conclusion
Sasol’s rebound reflects a combination of stronger oil prices, improved financial discipline, and renewed strategic relevance. However, its heavy reliance on volatile energy markets means the outlook remains closely tied to external conditions, keeping the broader picture cautiously balanced.
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