TSM Stock Hits New Record Above $460 as Nvidia Collab and Packaging Deals Drive Momentum

Quick overview

Stock Extends Uptrend Amid Strong Chip-Driven Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company extended its upward momentum on Thursday, briefly surpassing $460 to reach a new record high. The move reflects sustained investor confidence in the company’s central role in global semiconductor supply chains, particularly as demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to accelerate.

The rally has been supported by a series of strategic developments that reinforce TSMC’s long-term production visibility and technological leadership, even as broader semiconductor markets face cyclical uncertainty.

Amkor Partnership Strengthens U.S. Supply Chain Footprint

A key driver of sentiment is TSMC’s newly announced ten-year collaboration with Amkor Technology. Under the agreement, TSMC will outsource advanced packaging and testing services in Arizona, expanding its U.S.-based manufacturing ecosystem.

The partnership is designed to improve supply chain resilience while supporting TSMC’s ongoing expansion in the United States. It also provides clearer long-term visibility into packaging capacity, an increasingly critical component of advanced chip production for AI and high-performance computing workloads.

Nvidia Collaboration Enhances AI Manufacturing Efficiency

Additional optimism stems from TSMC’s deepening cooperation with Nvidia. The two companies are working together to integrate AI tools into semiconductor manufacturing processes, including computational lithography, wafer inspection, and transistor-level simulation.

By embedding advanced AI models into fabrication workflows, TSMC aims to improve production yields and shorten development cycles, reinforcing its technological edge at the leading edge of chip manufacturing.

Strong Chip Demand Supports Multi-Year Growth Outlook

Customer demand for advanced nodes continues to be a central growth driver. Chips built on TSMC’s 3-nanometer process now account for roughly a quarter of total revenue, up sharply from just a few years ago, reflecting rapid adoption in AI and high-performance computing applications.

Major customers, including Marvell Technology, are also exploring early adoption of next-generation process technologies, signaling a strong backlog of advanced-node demand extending well into the next decade.

Stock Pullback Despite Strong Results

Despite the strong fundamentals, TSMC shares declined more than 3% following the announcement in April, but that was just a pullback before the uptrend resumed again. The stock reached a new record at $450 in early June, but retreated lower, however this week is another bullish one and the TSMC stock has printed a new record at $465 with the 20 weekly SMA (gray) acting as support during pullbacks.

TMSC Chart Weekly – The 20 SMA Has Been Acting as Support

Expansion Plans Backed by Elevated Guidance

TSMC has reiterated a confident long-term outlook, projecting more than 30% revenue growth in U.S. dollar terms for 2026, supported by elevated capital expenditure plans.

The company continues to expand manufacturing capacity across Taiwan, the United States, and Japan, including its $165 billion investment program in Arizona. However, management has acknowledged that semiconductor fab construction remains a multi-year process, with new capacity typically requiring two to three years to come online.

Geopolitical and Capacity Risks Remain in View

Despite the strong outlook, management has highlighted geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, as a potential near-term source of volatility. In addition, the pace of global AI demand is placing strain on existing capacity, raising the risk of supply bottlenecks during the expansion phase.

Overall, while TSMC’s structural growth story remains firmly supported by AI-driven demand and long-term customer commitments, execution timelines and geopolitical uncertainty continue to shape a more cautious near-term outlook.

TSMC’s results reinforce the strength of the chip cycle, but the muted stock reaction serves as a reminder that expectations are already high. Sustaining upside will depend not just on demand, but on execution, macro stability, and the company’s ability to translate growth into consistent returns.

TSMC Key Earnings Highlights

Net Income:

• T$572.5 billion (~$18.2 billion) in Q1
• +58% YoY growth
• Marks 8 consecutive quarters of double-digit profit growth

EPS Performance:

• Reported: T$22.08
• Expected: T$20.88
• Clear earnings beat, reinforcing strong operational execution

Guidance and Outlook

Full-Year Revenue:

• Now >30% growth (USD terms)
• Upgrade from prior ~30% guidance

Q2 Revenue Forecast:

• Expected: $ 39B – $40.2B
• vs $30.1B last year
• Implies strong YoY acceleration

Capital Spending and Chip Demand

Capex Guidance:

• Expected toward the top end of $52B–$56B range
• Signals continued heavy investment in advanced chips

Key Driver:

• Strong demand for AI chips and advanced nodes (3nm/2nm)
• Reinforces TSMC’s position at the center of the global AI supply chain

Market Implications

• Results confirm ongoing semiconductor upcycle, particularly in AI-related demand
• Strength likely supportive for broader chip ecosystem and tech sector
• Elevated capex suggests confidence in sustained long-term demand, not just short-term spike

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.