Will RKLB Stock Rebound Toward $100 as Rocket Lab’s Iridium Deal Reshapes Space Race?

Rocket Lab shares remain under pressure after a sharp pullback, even as the Iridium acquisition, rising contract assets, and Morgan Stanley’s bull-case target keep long-term space investors focused on the upside.

Rocket Lab Pullback Tests Space Stock Bulls

Rocket Lab is facing a critical test after a steep selloff across space and high-growth infrastructure stocks. The company’s long-term story has arguably improved after its Iridium deal, but the chart suggests investors are still digesting valuation, execution, and insider-selling concerns.

Iridium Deal Signals a Bigger Space Platform

Rocket Lab’s agreement to acquire Iridium Communications is the biggest catalyst in the stock.

The deal values Iridium at roughly $8 billion in enterprise value and gives Rocket Lab access to a 66-satellite low-Earth orbit constellation, globally coordinated L-band spectrum, and about 2.6 million subscribers.

Strategically, the transaction transforms Rocket Lab from a launch and spacecraft manufacturing company into a more integrated space infrastructure platform. The combined company would span design, build, launch, satellite operations, and communications services.

That matters because recurring satellite communications revenue could reduce Rocket Lab’s dependence on lumpy launch activity and long development cycles.

Contract Assets Show Long-Term Execution

Rocket Lab’s contract assets are also rising.

As of March 31, 2026, the company reported $75 million in contract assets, up from $61.6 million at the end of 2025. Contract assets reflect work performed before customer billing milestones are reached, making them a useful signal of ongoing execution across long-term programs.

The increase points to continued progress in launch services, spacecraft manufacturing, satellite components, and space systems work. For investors, that supports the idea that Rocket Lab’s revenue base is becoming more diversified.

Morgan Stanley Bull Case Keeps Attention on $293

Morgan Stanley recently lifted its bull-case target on RKLB to $293, while maintaining an Overweight rating and a $105 base-case target.

The bull case depends on several major assumptions: an on-time Neutron debut, successful integration of Iridium, and major defense awards converting into signed contracts. The bank also points to Rocket Lab’s backlog, responsive launch capability, and space systems growth as key drivers.

Still, reaching $293 would require a major re-rating. It would imply a market capitalization far above current levels and would likely require flawless execution across launch, satellite communications, defense, and integration.

Insider Selling Adds Pressure to RKLB Stock

The stock’s pullback has also been complicated by insider selling.

CEO Peter Beck sold about $286.4 million worth of shares over three days through a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. While automatic selling plans do not necessarily signal a negative view of the business, large sales can still weigh on sentiment when a stock is already under pressure.

Investors may be especially sensitive because RKLB is trading at a premium valuation relative to many aerospace peers, with a forward price-to-sales multiple well above the industry average.

RKLB Technical Analysis: Sellers Still Control the Trend

From a technical perspective, Rocket Lab’s 4-hour chart remains weak.

RKLB is trading below the 10 EMA at $89.39, 20 EMA at $93.02, 50 EMA at $100.01, and 100 EMA at $100.41. It is also below the 200 EMA at $92.85, showing that sellers control the short and medium-term structure.

Momentum is mixed but still fragile. RSI sits at 37.04, close to oversold but not yet flashing a confirmed reversal. MACD remains bearish at -4.58, while the Awesome Oscillator is negative at -10.95.

However, the Williams %R at -91.18 and Momentum signal suggest the selloff may be stretched. The Hull Moving Average at $79.18 is also showing a buy signal, making the $79-$80 zone an important downside reference.

Key Levels: $80, $89 and $100

The first major support is $80, followed by the Hull Moving Average area around $79.18. A break below that zone could expose RKLB to deeper downside toward $75.

On the upside, the first recovery target is $89-$90, where the 10 EMA and 200 SMA sit. A stronger rebound would require a move above $93-$95, where the 20 EMA, VWMA, and Ichimoku base line cluster.

The bigger level is $100. Until RKLB reclaims that zone, the chart remains a rebound attempt rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

Rocket Lab Has a Big Vision, Tough Chart

Rocket Lab’s long-term story remains compelling. The Iridium deal could create a vertically integrated space platform, contract assets are rising, and Neutron may unlock a larger launch market if execution stays on track.

However, the stock is still trading below key technical levels, insider selling has added caution, and the valuation leaves little room for delays.

For now, $80 is the level bulls need to defend. A rebound above $90 would improve sentiment, but RKLB needs to reclaim $100 before the chart confirms that the correction has ended.