MSTR Stock Struggles Below $100 as Strategy’s Bitcoin Sales Shake Investor Confidence
Strategy (MSTR) stock holds near $95 as Bitcoin sales, STRC dividends and weak moving averages pressure Saylor’s BTC strategy.
Quick overview
- Strategy shares are under pressure as investors doubt the sustainability of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury model for supporting preferred dividends.
- The company has shifted from a 'never sell Bitcoin' approach, recently selling $216 million worth of Bitcoin, raising concerns about future sales.
- Standard Chartered warns that Strategy's actions are complicating the market's perception of Bitcoin, with increased scrutiny on the sustainability of its preferred stock strategy.
- MSTR's stock remains sensitive to Bitcoin price fluctuations, with a critical resistance level at $100 and potential downside risks if support levels are breached.
Strategy shares remain under pressure as investors question whether Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury model can support preferred dividends without further BTC sales.
Strategy Slides as Bitcoin Pivot Raises Fresh Questions
Strategy has long traded as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, but recent developments have challenged the market’s confidence in that model.
Founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor again posted a cryptic Bitcoin-related message over the weekend, saying “Orange dots tell only part of the story.” Similar posts have previously come before Strategy announced new Bitcoin purchases.
This time, however, investors are more cautious. Strategy has recently moved away from its long-standing “never sell Bitcoin” approach and introduced a framework that allows Bitcoin sales to fund STRC preferred stock dividends and rebuild cash reserves.
Earlier this month, the company sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin, reducing its total holdings to 843,775 tokens. While that remains an enormous position, the sale itself has changed the market narrative.
Standard Chartered Says Messaging Is Now Critical
Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said Strategy’s recent actions are “muddying the waters” for Bitcoin in the near term.
The concern is not simply that Strategy sold Bitcoin, but that investors are trying to understand how often it may need to do so. The company has increased the annual dividend rate on its STRC preferred stock to 12% and disclosed that its dollar reserve has grown to $2.55 billion.
That means Bitcoin is no longer only a long-term treasury asset. It is increasingly being viewed as collateral backing a broader capital structure.
If Strategy can convince investors that wholesale BTC selling is unlikely, confidence could improve. But if markets believe preferred dividends will require continued Bitcoin liquidation, both MSTR and BTC sentiment could remain fragile.
Bitcoin Weakness Hits Strategy’s Premium
Strategy’s old model worked best when Bitcoin was rising and MSTR traded at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
During that period, the company could issue stock, preferred shares or debt, then use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. That created a feedback loop in which rising Bitcoin prices supported MSTR’s valuation premium, allowing additional capital raises.
That premium has now collapsed.
TradingView data shows MSTR down more than 18% over the past month, nearly 39% year to date, and more than 77% over the past year. The stock’s market capitalization remains around $33.17 billion, but the company’s financial profile is highly volatile, with basic EPS at -$35.65 and fiscal-year net income at -$3.85 billion.
This makes MSTR more sensitive to Bitcoin price swings than traditional software or technology stocks.
STRC Preferred Shares Add Capital Structure Risk
Strategy’s preferred stock strategy is also drawing scrutiny.
The company raised roughly $1.2 billion through STRC preferred share sales earlier this year and has filed programs that could raise up to $21 billion through additional Stretch sales and another $21 billion through common stock offerings.
STRC is designed to appeal to investors seeking lower-volatility Bitcoin exposure with a high dividend yield. However, the structure creates obligations that the company must support through cash reserves, capital markets activity or Bitcoin monetization.
That is why investors are now focused on the sustainability of the model. If Bitcoin rises strongly, Strategy’s structure could recover quickly. But if Bitcoin remains weak or declines further, preferred dividend obligations could increase pressure on the company to sell more BTC.
MSTR Technical Analysis: $100 Resistance Becomes Key
MSTR last traded at $94.64, up 0.80% in the regular session, before slipping to $92.62 in overnight trading.
MSTR Chart 4H – Buyers Struggle Below $100 Resistance
The 4-hour chart shows a fragile technical setup. MSTR is trading below most major moving averages, suggesting that sellers still control the broader trend.
The 10-period EMA sits near $95.48, while the 10-period SMA is around $96.94. These levels form immediate resistance. Above that, the 20-period EMA near $97.16 and the 30-period EMA near $100.60 make the $97-$101 region the first major recovery zone.
A sustained move above $100 would be psychologically important and could help stabilize sentiment. However, stronger resistance remains much higher, with the 50-period EMA near $109.01 and the 100-period EMA near $123.93.
Oscillators are mixed. The RSI at 43.48 is neutral, while Stochastic %K at 47.12 also shows no clear momentum extreme. MACD and Momentum are flashing buy signals, suggesting the stock may be trying to form a short-term rebound. However, the Awesome Oscillator remains negative and longer-term moving averages continue to point lower.
On the downside, the VWMA near $93.64 and Hull Moving Average near $93.16 are the first support levels. If MSTR breaks below $92.60, sellers could target $90, followed by the $85-$80 region.
Earnings Could Become the Next Major Catalyst for MicroStrategy
Strategy is expected to report second-quarter earnings on July 30, with analysts looking for EPS of $4.28, according to supplied data.
The company has missed analyst forecasts in six of the last eight quarters, including a large negative surprise in Q1. That history may keep investors cautious ahead of the report.
This earnings release will likely be less about traditional software revenue and more about Bitcoin holdings, preferred stock funding, cash reserves, and whether management can clarify the company’s updated capital strategy.
Bitcoin Recovery Needed to Restore Confidence in MSTR
Strategy remains one of the most important Bitcoin-linked equities in the market, but its risk profile has changed.
The company still controls one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holdings in the world, giving shareholders amplified exposure if Bitcoin recovers. However, the shift toward using Bitcoin to support preferred dividends has raised concerns that the treasury model is becoming more complex and more dependent on capital markets confidence.
For now, MSTR remains vulnerable below $100. A recovery above that level would improve the near-term technical picture, but buyers need a stronger move above $109 to challenge the broader downtrend.
If the stock loses the $92-$93 support area, downside pressure could quickly return, with $90 and $85 becoming the next key levels. Until Saylor’s updated Bitcoin strategy becomes clearer, rallies may continue to face skepticism.
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