Quick overview

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Dow Jones Futures trade at around 53,400 points, marking resilient overall momentum and a moderate bullish bias. The ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6, exceeding expectations and confirming a solid expansion of US industrial activity. 

The earnings season remains driven by Dow Jones and tech giants (notably Amazon, Boeing and Microsoft), which supports the overall sentiment on US indices.

The recent decline in crude oil prices (Brent around $84) and the easing of geopolitical tensions are reducing pressure on the inflation trajectory and bond rates (10-year US below 4.70%).

Although the economy remains resilient, the resilience of rate hikes warrants some caution on the highest valuations. The Dow (balanced index representative of the traditional economy) undergoes regular arbitrage between industrial/financial stocks and Big Tech.

 The technical structure remains favorable to buyers as long as futures remain above the 52,800 point zone,

The overall sentiment remains supported by the growth in US corporate profits and robust consumer spending. The catalysts to watch in the coming days will be the upcoming release of employment statistics and statements from Fed members.

s, Amazon has exerted a major influence on the index since its inclusion in the Dow Jones as a replacement for Walgreens, with record revenue of $200.6 billion (+20% year over year) and earnings per share of $5.75.

AWS Engine: The Cloud (AWS) division accelerated to +37% growth, its fastest pace in 18 quarters, easing concerns about the profitability of massive investments in AI.

Impact on the Dow: The surge in the stock (+15% to around $270) provided massive support to the index by bringing both sector growth and significant points weight due to its high price level.

Boeing remains one of the most closely watched and volatile industrial components of the Dow Jones.

Revenue of $24.6 billion (+8%), exceeding Wall Street consensus.  The company generated positive free cash flow of $631 million despite an adjusted net loss of $0.76 per share related to a charge on the VC-25B program. 171 aircraft deliveries in the quarter (best level since 2018) and FAA return of self-certification rights on the 737 MAX and 787.

 The rebound in the stock ( now above $220) confirms the return of positive momentum in the aerospace and defense sector, securing the bottom of the Dow Jones’ upward channel.