USOIL Reclaims $95–$96 as US-Iran Tensions Keep Supply Fears Alive – Breakout Above $98 Next?

Quick overview

USOIL (WTI crude oil futures) is hovering right around the $95.80 and $96.70 per barrel mark as of April 24th, 2026 – which works out to roughly mid-morning/early NY trading sessions.

• Recent action : Oil has been on the upswing for a fifth day running earlier in the week and is up around 3%+ as of Thursday – it’s looking like we could be in for a pretty strong weekly gain of 15-18% despite all the volatility going on. That said, we did see a slight pullback today but these prices remain fairly elevated.
• Context : WTI has been doing pretty well for itself year-to-date – we’re talking upwards of 50-60%+ in some recent periods. All this is thanks to a combination of geopolitical shocks. It’s worth noting that oil prices have been all over the map with this one – they even spiked above $100 at points back in early April, only to level off a bit since before starting to climb again.

Key Drivers Today

The thing with oil prices right now is that they are being propped up by a number of factors

• US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions – basically the waterway is either closed or contested with blockades, ship seizures and pretty much a lack of any real ceasefire progress, all of which are creating major headaches for supply chains – and this has really driven home a risk premium.
• Stalling peace talks – President Trump’s recent comments and posturing have put the brakes on negotiations with both sides effectively using the strait for leverage in their negotiations.
• Broader supply concerns – The IEA is warning this could be one of the biggest threats to global energy security ever – lots of other experts are weighing in on this one, mostly predicting some sort of rapid recovery only if the conflict gets fully resolved.

Domestically US supply is holding its own with recent inventory builds helping to offset some of the other pressures going on, but the physical tightness and all that headline risk just continues to dominate the conversation.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

WTI crude is showing a bit of a recovery on the 2H chart after bouncing off that $83-$87 demand zone, but we’re starting to run into some real resistance now.

As it stands, price is around $96, bang on the $93.14-$93.98 support band that’s recently flipped into a short-term base. This zone also just so happens to be where the 200 EMA is, which is making it an even more significant structural pivot point.

However, despite all that looking pretty good, the trend still leans bearish because we’re still stuck below that descending trendline that drew from the $109.60 highs – and that stalled rally of ours just happened to fail to break through that $98.14 ceiling, where we saw sellers kick back in once more. We’re at a point where the 50 EMA is catching up near $92.50, giving us some dynamic support, and RSI is around 62, which suggests that we do have some bullish momentum building but it’s not yet gotten to the overextended stage.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $98.14 to $101.30 to $105.50
• Support: $93.14-$93.98 to $87.50

Trade Idea: So we’re looking at a buy signal if price breaks above $98 with a target of $101.30-$105.50, and set your stop-loss below $93.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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