XRP Price Prediction: $1.44 Pullback Ahead of Thursday’s Binary Vote — 10:30 AM EST on May 14 Is Everything
On May 12, XRP was changing hands at $1.4449. It fell after climbing 6% on Sunday to $1.50 after Senate Banking Committee Chairman...
Quick overview
- XRP's price fell to $1.4449 after a brief rally to $1.50, influenced by the upcoming markup vote on the CLARITY Act.
- Polymarket probabilities for the CLARITY Act's passage surged to 90% but dropped to 62% due to opposition from major banking trade associations.
- A failed markup vote on May 14 could push XRP below $1.40, removing the primary bullish catalyst for the remainder of 2026.
- The Senate Banking Committee requires 13 affirmative votes to advance the legislation, with Chairman Tim Scott emphasizing the need for Republican support.
On May 12, XRP was changing hands at $1.4449. It fell after climbing 6% on Sunday to $1.50 after Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott set up a markup on the CLARITY Act for Thursday May 14 at 10:30 AM EST. Polymarket probabilities jumped to 90% intra-day but dipped to 62% following a backlash from the five largest banking trade associations against the stablecoin compromise. Thursday isn’t a catalyst, it is the only catalyst for XRP in 2026.
Thursday’s Vote Mechanics
The Senate Banking Committee convenes on Thursday May 14 at 10:30 AM EST in the Dirksen Senate Office Building. It is composed of 24 members, 13 Republicans and 11 Democrats, with 13 affirmative votes required to send the legislation to the Senate floor. Chairman Tim Scott has indicated a need for 13 Republican votes in a Fox Business interview, stating it is “the red zone.”
The chances of passing the CLARITY Act completely in 2026 according to Polymarket jumped to 80% when Scott put the markup on the schedule. Polymarket briefly rose to 90% intra-day during the weekend. However, they fell to 62% because five largest banking trade associations including the American Bankers Association rejected the stablecoin compromise in the bill. Banking lobby opposition is the reason why XRP is unable to breakout above $1.50 this week.
The White House has outlined a timeline: Senate Banking Committee markup in May, Senate floor vote in June, and House of Representative vote by July 4. If Thursday’s markup vote fails to reach the May 21 Memorial Day recess, there is no chance until 2030 according to a Senator Moreno.
The Supply Wall Above $1.45
There is 1.16 billion XRP underwater in the $1.45 to $1.50 range and $3 billion worth of sell orders above it. That is why the 6% Sunday rally failed at exactly $1.50. It wasn’t just another technical resistance level, it was just supply from the order book. Without another catalyst removing that supply, XRP will return to the range of $1.30 to $1.44 it has traded inside of for most of 2026.
Spot XRP ETFs saw an additional $34.2 million in inflows last week alone for a total of $1.32 billion. That demand would not disappear on a failed markup but the momentum would slow down without the regulatory catalyst.
XRP Technical Analysis: Ascending Channel Retest
The 2-hour XRP chart shows a bull flag from the recent impulse rally up to $1.507 and the ascending channel is being retested. We are currently testing the ascending channel from the $1.379 May low with higher lows still intact.
Resistance is at $1.464 (red moving average) $1.488 and $1.507. Support is found at $1.412 (blue moving average) and $1.379. RSI at 50 to 55 and positive divergence confirm the healthy consolidation of this move.
Trade Long: Break above $1.45 | Target $1.464 to $1.488 | Stop Loss Below $1.412.
FAQ: The CLARITY Act markup vote mechanism, the $3 billion wall of supply, and $1.80 target price.
What happens if the CLARITY Act markup vote is approved on Thursday May 14?
Approval by the Senate Banking Committee would sustain XRP above $1.45 and lead to another breakout. Target prices of $1.65 to $1.80 would be achieved within a few days and $1.70 to $2 on approval by the committee. Senate approval by July 4 would see prices reach $3 to $5. $5 to $10 could also be reached in this scenario if the spot XRP ETF flows reach $5 billion according to the standard mainstream analyst consensus. The cup-and-handle pattern starting with the March $1.15 low has the target of $1.65 to $1.70 as the first resistance zone when the XRP price confirms breakout.
Why did the Polymarket betting odds fall from 90% to 62%?
The biggest problem was that a week away from the vote, five largest banking trade associations including the American Bankers Association opposed the stablecoin compromise included in the CLARITY Act. Their objection is against allowing for stablecoin issuers who are not regulated as banking institutions; the main banking lobby’s objection is about regulatory arbitrage. If Chairman Tim Scott can separate the crypto commodity classification section from the stablecoin provisions section of the CLARITY Act, he can more easily get the markup vote approval. Otherwise, banking lobby opposition against the bill could lead to the vote failing on Thursday.
What happens to the XRP price if the CLARITY Act markup vote fails on Thursday?
A failed vote would lead XRP back down below $1.40. This would also remove the biggest bullish catalyst for the price for the remainder of 2026. Standard Chartered’s base case falls to $2.80 if CLARITY slips. This would lead to price of XRP ranging between $1.30 and $1.50 for the whole year. The next opportunity for a vote on the CLARITY Act would not open up until 2030 after a new Congress begins. This would lead to a different price trajectory for XRP with prices moving based on correlated movements with Bitcoin and spot XRP ETFs inflows. No other catalyst would exist in the next year or more as far as the XRP price goes. This scenario was not mentioned in any previous XRP piece.
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