Cerebras Stock Forecast: CBRS Drops 11% After-Hours as Margin Outlook Overshadows 92% Revenue Surge

Quick overview

Cerebras Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CBRS) closed Tuesday at $226.72, up 1.02% on the day, before sliding sharply in after-hours trading to around $201.04, down 11.33%. The selloff came after the AI chipmaker delivered its first earnings report since going public, with strong revenue growth but weaker margin guidance rattling investors.

The company reported quarterly revenue of about $193.4 million, nearly doubling from a year earlier, helped by surging demand for AI inference infrastructure and major partnerships with OpenAI and Amazon Web Services. However, traders focused on Cerebras’ forecast for lower gross margins as it ramps capacity to meet demand.

Why CBRS Stock 11% Fell After Earnings

Cerebras’ revenue growth remains impressive, but the market’s reaction shows investors are now looking beyond top-line expansion. The company guided for Q2 adjusted gross margin of 36% to 38%, below its first-quarter level of around 47%.

For full-year 2026, Cerebras expects adjusted gross margin of 38% to 41%. While that is still above some analyst expectations, it remains far below AI chip rivals such as Nvidia, whose margins are much stronger.

The pressure is partly tied to Cerebras’ rapid infrastructure buildout. Management said temporary third-party capacity costs are weighing on cloud and services margins as the company works to scale its own data center footprint.

OpenAI and AWS Deals Keep the Growth Story Alive

Despite the margin concern, Cerebras’ long-term AI demand story remains intact. The company is tied to a major multi-year OpenAI compute agreement reportedly worth more than $20 billion, alongside a strategic AWS deployment involving Cerebras CS-3 systems.

Cerebras is positioning itself as a high-speed inference player, offering an alternative to GPU-based AI compute. That gives CBRS a clear growth narrative, but the post-earnings reaction suggests investors want proof that demand can convert into durable profitability.

CBRS Technical Analysis: Bearish Bias Builds Below $227

From a technical perspective, CBRS is flashing a cautious signal on the daily chart.

The stock closed slightly above its short-term averages, with the 10-day EMA at $225.12 and 10-day SMA at $223.45 both showing buy signals. However, the broader short-term structure is weaker, as CBRS remains below the 20-day EMA at $236.14, the 20-day SMA at $227.08, the VWMA at $228.93, and the Hull MA at $227.38.

Momentum indicators also lean bearish. The MACD level at -15.54 and Momentum at -11.11 both show sell signals, while the RSI at 41.47 remains neutral but close to bearish territory.

Key levels to watch:

• Resistance: $225.12, $227.08, $228.93, $236.14
• Support: $201.04, $195.00, $185.00
• Bullish invalidation level: A daily close back above $236
• Bearish continuation level: A break below $201

If CBRS fails to reclaim the $225-$229 zone, sellers may target the $201 after-hours low, followed by the $195 area. A deeper decline could bring the IPO price near $185 back into focus.

Is Cerebras Still a Good Buy in 2026?

CBRS remains a high-growth AI stock with major enterprise demand, but its first earnings report highlighted the cost of scaling quickly. The company’s revenue performance supports the bull case, yet margin compression and negative operating margins may keep volatility elevated.

For now, Cerebras stock looks technically vulnerable unless buyers can push it back above the $228-$236 resistance band. Until then, the setup favors caution, with traders likely watching whether the $201 after-hours support level holds.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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