Tesla Stock Forecast: TSLA Slides 5.8% as Safety Probe Overshadows $5B NatPower Battery Deal

Quick overview

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed Tuesday at $381.61, down 5.79%, after regulatory pressure around its driver-assistance technology weighed on sentiment. The stock edged slightly higher after hours to $382.40, but the rebound was modest compared with the day’s sharp decline.

The selloff came despite a fresh energy-storage win, after NatPower and Tesla announced a multi-year agreement to build 25 GWh of battery storage in Italy and Britain using Tesla’s Megapack systems.

Tesla’s Energy Deal Adds Long-Term Support

The NatPower agreement marks the first phase of a broader battery-storage plan that could eventually exceed 100 GWh of capacity. The companies said the full program may require $4 billion to $5 billion in construction costs and could generate more than $15 billion in revenue over 20 years.

For Tesla, the deal strengthens the case for its energy business at a time when investors are debating the company’s valuation beyond EV deliveries. Battery storage remains one of Tesla’s fastest-growing long-term opportunities, especially as Europe expands renewable power and needs grid-balancing infrastructure.

NHTSA Probe Hits Tesla’s Autonomy Narrative

The positive Megapack news was overshadowed by reports that U.S. regulators are reviewing a fatal Model 3 crash in Texas involving questions around Tesla’s automated driving software.

That matters because Tesla’s premium valuation is increasingly tied to autonomy, robotaxis, software revenue, and artificial intelligence rather than only vehicle sales. Any renewed scrutiny of Full Self-Driving or driver-assistance systems can pressure the stock, even when delivery expectations remain stable.

TSLA Technical Analysis: Bearish Below $400

Tesla’s daily technical setup is weak. The stock is trading below nearly every major moving average, showing that sellers remain in control in the short and medium term.

The 10-day EMA at $400.02, 10-day SMA at $398.32, 20-day EMA at $404.90, and 20-day SMA at $410.84 all flash sell signals. Longer-term averages also lean bearish, with the 200-day EMA at $396.81 and 200-day SMA at $417.53 both above the current price.

Momentum indicators confirm the cautious tone. The MACD level at -4.31, Momentum at -27.34, and Awesome Oscillator at -16.61 all show sell signals. Meanwhile, the RSI at 40.86 remains neutral but close to bearish territory.

Key levels to watch:

• Resistance: $395.54, $398.32, $400.02, $404.90, $410.84, $417.53
• Support: $380.00, $375.00, $365.00, $350.00
• Bullish reversal level: A daily close above $400
• Bearish continuation level: A break below $380

If TSLA fails to reclaim the $396-$400 zone, the stock could remain vulnerable to another move toward $375 and $365. A close back above $400 would ease near-term pressure, but bulls may need a break above $410-$418 to rebuild momentum.

Tesla Stock Has a Bearish Outlook Under $400

Tesla’s long-term energy-storage story received a boost from the NatPower deal, but near-term trading remains dominated by regulatory risk and weak technical momentum. With TSLA sitting below its key moving averages, the stock’s bias remains bearish unless buyers can force a sustained recovery above $400.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

Cerebras Stock Forecast: CBRS Drops 11% After-Hours as Margin Outlook Overshadows 92% Revenue Surge

3 h ago

Save

Oracle (ORCL) Stock Reacts Dramatically to AI Taking 21,000 Jobs

9 h ago

Save

Chip Stocks Diving as Nasdaq Falls 2.6% While S&P 500 Loses 1.2%

14 h ago

Save