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Over the course of the last two sessions, October WTI crude oil futures have fallen into a consolidation phase. The news-driven buying from the first three days of the week has given way to sideways action. It looks as though the EIA and API reports of an inventory build have given this market moment for pause.

 

As the market tightens up, trading strategies aimed at capturing breakouts become relevant.

 

Technicals

The technicals for this market are somewhat suspect due to the impact that the week’s extraordinary events have had upon price action. Let’s take a look at the daily October WTI chart for a bit of perspective:

 

October WTI Crude Oil Futures-Daily Chart

 

Key Levels:

• Psyche level                         $50.00

• Upper Bollinger Band           $49.69

• August 78% Retracement    $49.43

• Thursday’s high                    $49.34

• Thursday’s low                      $48.63

Trading Plan: This market is stuck in consolidation, and a breakout is not a foregone conclusion. As of this writing, we have a tight 53 tick range which is certain to be extended.

Scalps:

• Buy above Thursday’s high from $49.34, 1:1 R/R

• Sell below Thursday’s low from $48.62, 1:1 R/R

A possible position trade will be a long from $49.34 with an upside target of $49.85, stop loss under the intraday low at $48.72. This is not quite a 1:1, but should have a great shot at trading in the green for a majority of the U.S. session.

Remember to trade smart! The Baker Hughes Rig Count is out later today, so any open positions must have the appropriate risk management in place.