Compression is the rule for the EUR/USD. For the second consecutive session, traders are noncommittal. While the long-term bullish trend is still intact, this market appears hesitant to make a late-March directional move.

On a side note, U.S. New Home Sales came in below expectations at 618,000 for February. This number does not typically move the needle on the EUR/USD. A tightening of lending to homebuyers from regional banks and mortgage companies is the likely culprit. It will be interesting to keep an eye on the U.S. real estate market as the FED proceeds with their plan of gradual interest rate hikes over the next two years.

EUR/USD Technicals

The EUR/USD is in heavy rotation on the daily timeframe. For the last seven sessions, price has traded each side of the Bollinger MP and Daily SMA.

Here are the key levels to watch for the remainder of the session:

• Support(1): Bollinger MP, 1.2321
• Support(2): 20 Day EMA, 1.2319
• Support(3): Daily SMA, 1.2314

The slope and proximity of the Bollinger MP to the Daily SMA is a signal of consolidation. Price has traded sideways for two weeks. Is it ever going to break out?

Bottom Line: The rest of today’s session is wide open on the economic calendar. I will be scalping to the long from 1.2321 with an initial stop at 1.2309. These are tight scalps, looking for 5-8 pips profit. While my bias is to the bull, this market is slow and shooting for 25-50 pips is a tough proposition.