On Wednesday, crude oil prices slipped back from three-year highs, as the build in U.S. inventories and high production output continued to weigh on crude oil. The EIA report is due to release their stockpile report during the New York session and we may encounter a good trade setup. Are you up for it? Let’s plan it…

WTI Crude Oil – Fundamental Outlook

Crude oil continues to trade lower, exactly in line with our forecast, WTI Crude Oil Ticks Up. The dip in oil prices can also a be a result of profit-taking after Tuesday’s highs. Overall, it looks like the period of oversupply that started back in 2014 has now ended due to supply interruptions and also, strong demand. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is also expecting a rise in crude oil prices up to $80- $100/barrel.

Recalling FX Leaders’ April 25 – Economic Events Outlook, the API (American Petroleum Institute) reported a build of 1.099m barrels vs a previous draw of 1.047m. Can we expect the same from the EIA?

Typically, I have seen a positive correlation between the EIA and API reports. The EIA is expected to release inventory figures with a forecast of -1.6m vs. -1.1m. But you should be ready to see a build in inventories.

WTI Crude Oil – Trading Plan

I’m looking to stay bullish above $67.50 and bearish below $69.40 with a 50 pips take profit on each side. However, with a breach of $67.50, the next target will be $66.45. Let’s wait for the news. Good luck!