Earlier today, ECB President Mario Draghi delivered an academic speech on behalf of the European University Institute. Anytime the head of a central bank issues commentary traders take note. However, this speech did not address monetary policy facing the Euro. Since the engagement, the EUR/USD has traded largely sideways in the vicinity of 1.1950.

Next Tuesday is going to be a big day for the EUR/USD. With Germany and the Eurozone releasing the Q1 GDP numbers, the market will learn more about the economic environment in Europe.

A few hours later on Tuesday, U.S. Retail Sales numbers are due out. Expectations are modest, but this release may surprise. If you are trading the EUR/USD, be sure to circle the Tuesday session on your calendar.

EUR/USD Technicals

The bulls are on a two-day winning streak in the EUR/USD. Depending on today’s close, price may close above 1.1910 for the second consecutive day.

A converging Bollinger MP and Daily SMA is an indication that the intermediate-term downtrend is beginning to slow down. If this is the case, we could see a test of topside resistance on next week’s economic data releases.

Here are the levels to watch for early next week:

• Resistance(1): 38% Retracement of Current Wave, 1.2048
• Support(1): Psyche Level, 1.1900
• Support(2): Swing Low, 1.1822
• Support(3): Macro 38% Retracement, 1.1708

Overview: Going into the weekend, I have a keen eye on the 38% retracement of the current bear run (1.2048). In the event price closes strong today, this area will be a premium trade location to the short for the Monday/Tuesday sessions.