38% Retracement Holds For The EUR/USD

Posted Monday, November 26, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

The pre and post-Brexit Summit forex sessions have not been overly kind to backers of the EUR/USD. Rates have fallen consistently, producing a total drop of more than 75 pips. As of this writing, sellers are pushing intraday lows near a key Fibonacci support level.

From a macro perspective, U.S. markets are fading at the midway point of the trading day. Early gains by the DJIA have been pared, as have those of gold. At the moment, the USD is one of the only assets traders are deeming reliable. This was evident in today’s U.S. Treasuries auctions. Yields of the 3 and 6-Month T-Bill rallied, while the long-term 2-Year T-Note fell. All in all, it appears that for the next 6-12 months, investors anticipate a strong Greenback to fuel gains in the debt market.

EUR/USD Technicals

Today’s action in the EUR/USD has brought several tests of the daily Current Wave 38% Retracement (1.1324). This area is set up to be an important one and will either confirm or deny the mid-November uptrend.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart
EUR/USD, Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch for the remainder of the U.S. session:

  • Resistance(1): Daily SMA, 1.1360
  • Support(1): 38% Current Wave, 1.1324

Overview: For the time being, the 38% Fibonacci level at 1.1324 will tell the tale. In the event that it does not hold up as support, a run to 1.1275-1.1250 is likely.

This week is dominated by fundamentals. U.S. GDP, Core Personal Consumption, and FOMC remarks will drive valuations of the Greenback. Friday’s E.U. CPI and Unemployment reports are primary market drivers facing the Euro. If you are trading the EUR/USD buckle up ― the coming four sessions are going to produce enhanced volatility and a directional move in this market.

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