Daily Briefing, Apr 15 – Trading USD/CAD on BOC Business Outlook Survey
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Good morning, traders.
Welcome back to another exciting week. As usual, the investor focus will remain on the technical side of the market on Monday. The Greenback continues the day in a bullish format against a basket of currencies.
In the absence of major economic events today, investors seem to price in encouraging US inflation and labor data from the previous week. Here are the highlights for today.
BOC Business Outlook Survey
At 14:30 GMT, the Bank of Canada will be reporting the Canadian business outlook. Actually, it’s a survey of about 100 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions, such as sales growth, investment in machinery, employment, inflation expectations, and credit conditions.
The particular report is highly respected as traders try to determine the monetary policy decisions based upon the survey results.
USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
At 12:30 GMT, FOMC Member Evans is due to speak in a television appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box. Being a President of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, his remarks carry significant value and can shake the US dollar over surprising comments.
EUR – German Buba Monthly Report
At 10:00 GMT, the Deutsche Bundesbank will be releasing the monthly report on the German economy. Typically, it contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint.
The optimistic view of Deutsche Bundesbank on German economy will extend support to the single currency Euro. Else, we may see a selling opportunity today.
USD/CAD – Breakout Setup in Focus
The Canadian dollar has elevated 2.4% this year against the Greenback mainly due to a surge in crude oil prices. A rise of more than 40% in oil prices has helped make the Canadian dollar one of this year’s best performing major currencies. However, there is mounting concern about household debt, home prices are sinking and, apparently, growth remained fragile in the final part of 2018.
- On the technical side, USD/CAD is stuck in a narrow trading range of 1.3340 – 1.3320. Now the thing is, leading and lagging indicators are suggesting different directions.
- The RSI and Stochastics are steady in the oversold zone but the moving average is suggesting a bearish bias of traders.
- On the upper side, the violation of bullish breakout can lead USD/CAD towards 1.3395. While support prevails at 1.3290.
Key Trading Level: 1.3379
USD/CAD – Trade Idea
Consider staying bullish only above 1.3340 with a stop loss below 1.3315 and take profit at 1.3380 today.