The unemployment rate will likely surge in April too

Strange to See UK Unemployment Rate Fall, While Jobless Claims Surge in March

Posted Tuesday, May 19, 2020 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

The UK went into shut-down by the end of March, after Boris Johnson tried to keep the country open, bu then gave up. The economy has tumbled, falling in deep contraction, like most countries around the world. As a result, the unemployment claims have surged for that month, but the unemployment rate is not reflecting that. I assume the unemployment rate is calculated before the jobless claims. Below is the unemployment report for March.

UK Unemployment Report Released by ONS – 19 May 2020

  • April unemployment claims 856.5k vs 12.2k prior
  • March  unemployment claims 12.2k; revised to 5.4k
  • Claimant count rate 5.8%
  • March claimant count rate 3.5%
  • March average weekly earnings +2.4% vs +2.7% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +2.8%
  • March average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +2.7% vs +2.6% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +2.9%
  • March ILO unemployment rate 3.9% vs 4.3% expected
  • Prior 4.0%
Slight delay in the release by the source. As lockdown measures in the country go into full swing, unemployment claims soar in the UK – much like everywhere else – to historic levels.
Wage pressures remain a tad bit more subdued, with the main reading slumping to its weakest level since June 2018. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for March is still seen as better but expect that to change next month when it reflects April data instead.
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