Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Stumbles Near $76K as Fed Holds Rates; Solana Signals Recovery

Quick overview

Bitcoin BTC/USD fell below $75,000 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.5–3.75% and flagged Middle East uncertainty, while on-chain data showed bearish leverage building ahead of the announcement. Solana SOL/USD, down 71% from its 2025 peak, showed signs of resilience as Western Union’s decision to build a stablecoin on the network validated SOL as real payment infrastructure.

Crypto Market Developments

The wider crypto market digested a busy 48 hours of institutional news as macro headwinds continue to keep prices under pressure. Visa has expanded its stablecoin settlement trial to nine blockchains including Polygon and Base, and revealed a $7 billion annualised settlement run rate – up 50% quarter on quarter. The headline statistic masks weak volumes relative to Visa’s core payments operation.

Crypto payments provider MoonPay has also bought Israeli key-management firm Sodot in an all-stock deal worth about $100 million to create the backbone of a new institutional business unit for asset managers, trading businesses and exchanges. Caroline Pham, former acting chair of the CFTC, will lead the division. Meanwhile, Aptos launched a privacy coin, “Confidential APT,” pegged 1:1 to APT that uses zero-knowledge proofs to hide wallet balances and transfer amounts, while still being verifiable on-chain, which Aptos Labs called a “operational dealbreaker” for enterprise adoption.

Bitcoin Under Pressure Fed Holds Rates, Middle East Jitters

Bitcoin. Bitcoin extended a two-day slide Wednesday after the FOMC announced it will hold the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5-3.75%, citing “uncertainty” associated with Middle East developments and its aim to maintain optionality on both sides of its dual mandate. The decision itself was widely expected, but BTC dropped to an intraday low of $74,937, just below the 20-day simple moving average of $75,664, which traders had cited as key to confirming a support-resistance shift. Shubh Varma, CEO of Hyblock, described the move as “the usual sell the news reaction after the FOMC’, adding that the global bid-ask ratio hit one of its highest recent readings briefly as open interest declined, which suggests stop-hunt behaviour rather than conviction selling. Within hours Bitcoin had rebounded to around pre-announcement levels.

Glassnode analysts had already pointed to increased bearish leverage before Chair Powell’s press conference. Open interest climbed after Tuesday’s gain to $79,000, financing rates stayed neutral and the spot-versus-futures cumulative volume gap diverged. “Bitcoin is trapped below market mean where $65,000–$70,000 acts as a support floor but weak demand is not allowing for sustained rallies,” the firm’s Week Onchain report said. Bitcoin also failed to break its True Market Mean of $79,000, while a spike in short-term holder profit taking and margin futures switching net short has sapped near-term positive momentum. But analysts said that institutional spot ETF inflows and rising CME open interest had created a “dense accumulation cluster” between $65,000 and $70,000, which may act as a buffer against any steeper downside fall.

Western Union Stablecoin Validates SOL as Payment Rail

Solana’s price is down 71% from its all-time high in 2025, while its Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator is deep into capitulation territory at 0.67 – a reading that has historically, according to data from Fidelity Investments, been followed by median recovery of more than 500% during the next year. Historically analysts are fast to point out the tiny sample size, and that past performance is no assurance but on-chain activity offers a more robust story: monthly active addresses are up 50%, new addresses have grown more than 35%, and stablecoin flows are steady. The divergence between price weakness and network strength implies that real utility is rising while speculative enthusiasm remains muted.

The strategic signal that could be most important to Solana’s long-term trajectory came from an unexpected place: Western Union. The worldwide remittance giant’s move to establish its USDPT stablecoin on Solana has changed the narrative for SOL from a trade token into a reputable payment rail. MEXC CEO Vugar Usi pointed out that stablecoins have long been considered tools for liquidity in the crypto market. But when a company the size of Western Union builds dollar-settled infrastructure on a public blockchain, it signals a broader shift away from slow and fragmented financial systems and towards always-on, low-cost alternatives. For Solana in particular, the backing of an institution that size, on top of rebounding on-chain metrics, puts the network as a viable contender to underpin the next generation of global payment infrastructure.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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