Did We Miss the Chance to Sell USD/CAD?
USD/CAD pulled back up overnight, but the 50 SMA has ended the retrace
The USD/CAD has been really bearish, since it reversed from the high at $1.4650s, early last year. Yesterday it attempted to push below 1.20, but that big round level held in the first attempt and the price has bounced higher today, although, the trend is still quite bearish, especially after the OPEC+ meeting yesterday.
They decided to keep the actual quotas in place and not increase production until July, which sent oil higher again yesterday, since, with the global economy steaming up, traders were expecting an increase in production sooner. This will keep the CAD in demand and the USD/CAD bearish. So, we are trying to sell USD/CAD, and a while ago there was a good opportunity, as this pair was trading at the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H4 chart.
Now, it has reversed 30 pips down, so we might have missed that chance. But, we were waiting for the price to reach the 100 SMA (green) which has been the ultimate resistance indicator lately. The Canadian building permits declined by 0.5% in April, but that decline came after a major jump in the previous month.
April, Canada Building Permits
- Building permits for April -0.5% versus -5.0% estimate
- Canada building permits for April came in at -0.5% versus -5.0% estimate.
- Prior month 5.7%
- Total value of building permits $11.1 billion
- The permits remain near historic high levels
- The slight pullback was mainly due to declines in the residential sector in British Columbia and Quebec, which outweighed national gains in the non-residential sector
- Residential building permits fell -6.7%. Despite the large decline, this was the second highest value on record.
- Multifamily dwellings fell -6.5%
- Commercial permits search 28.7%.
- A $97 million permit for the Sick Kids patient support centre in the city of Toronto and an $80 million permit for the Centennial Community and Aquatics Centre in the city of New Westminster were among several large permits that were issued in the month. To put it into perspective, the largest commercial permit in March was $43 million.
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