Crude Oil has been extremely bullish for 18 months now, with US WTI crude Oil increasing from $-37 to $85 in a straightforward trend. There has been the occasional retrace lower, but they have been pretty small apart from one occasion in August this year. Moving averages have been doing a great job as support during the pullbacks, holding the price and pushing the trend higher.

The strategy from OPEC+ has worked as Iraq’s Oil ministry commented on, helped by an accelerating global economy. Last week we saw a $10 retreat in crude Oil, but the retreat seems to have ended at the 100 MA (green) and this week we saw a bounce from below $75 to almost $80. So, the retreat seems to have ended for Oil, which makes this a good opportunity to go long.

The 100 SMA held as support for crude Oil

Remarks by Iraq Oil Ministry via State News Agency

• OPEC strategy has been successful so far
• OPEC is cautious about pumping and reducing oil supply
• OPEC does not want to lose this success because oil markets remain fragile
• Any additional quantities can lead to a collapse in price or oversupply

I reckon this relates more to future policy but it doesn’t really reveal much about what they might do collectively as a bloc in next week’s meeting in response to the SPR release.

US WTI Crude Oil Live Chart