Recession and energy crisis expected in the Eurozone

Forex Signals Brief for July 12: EUR/USD to Parity As Europe Heads into Recession

Posted Tuesday, July 12, 2022 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday most of the markets were pretty quiet as the data was pretty light in the economic calendar. Risk aversion was notable though as risk assets turned bearish again, with the USD benefiting from that. Most major currencies retreated against the USD, with EUR/USD making a new low as it headed to parity. USD/JPY surged higher once again after BOJ’s head Kuroda said that they would “keep the monetary loose” as the world economy heads toward recession.

We saw a jump in the natural gas price as the maintenance work of the Nord Stream 1 got underway, limiting further the amount of gas Europe gets although the continent is still receiving gas from Russia. Crude Oil slipped lower toward $100 in the European session but reversed higher to $104.

The Data Agenda Today

Today the economic calendar is light again, with the Eurozone and German ZEW economic sentiment being the most important release in a short while. The UK BRC retail sales monitor and the Westpac consumer sentiment from Australia came out negative this morning, while later in the evening Bank of England governor Bailey will hold a speech which might send the GBP further down.

Forex Signals Update

Last week we had a good run with forex and commodity signals, opening more than twenty and booking profit on 80% of them. Yesterday we opened two forex signals, one in AUD/USD and another sell signal in BTC/USD, with the latter closing in profit, as well as the EUR/USD signal we opened last Friday.

EUR/USD – Sell Signal

EUR/USD has turned quite bearish as many economists expect the continent to fall into recession and have an energy crisis during the upcoming winter. The price reversed at 1.0075 last week, but moving averages continue to act as resistance and reversed the price lower. We decided to open a sell signal which closed in profit yesterday.

EUR/USD – 60 minute chart

USD/JPY – Buying Every Pullback

USD/JPY has been really bullish since March as most central banks have been raising interest rates in hopes to fight surging prices without any result, while the Bank of Japan continues to remain on hold and yesterday Kuroda said that they would keep the monetary policy loose, As a result, we saw another jump higher on this pair which we missed, but we decided to open a buy signal after the pullback at the 20 SMA.

USD/JPY – 60 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies made a decent bullish move last week, but that move ended during the weekend and on Sunday the crypto market reversed lower. Cryptocurrencies continued lower yesterday as well, and we decided to open a sell trade in digital currencies.

Booking Profit in BITCOIN

After the bullish move failed late last week, Bitcoin started reversing lower on Sunday and has been bearish for the last two days. The 20 SMA (gray) has been acting as resistance at the top and yesterday we decided to open a sell signal below that moving average, which hit the take profit target eventually.

BTC/USD – H1 chart

LITECOIN – Pushing Against the 50 SMA

Litecoin has been bearish since last November after a failed attempt to surge higher back then. Moving averages have been doing a good job as resistance indicators, pushing the price lower, with the 20 SMA (gray) taking over in recent months as the decline has accelerated. But buyers are putting up a fight and pushing Litecoin against the 50 SMA (yellow).

LTC/USD – Daily chart

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