Oil Failing at the 200 Daily SMA Again After Inventories Drawdown

Crude Oil failed to break the 200 daily SMA yesterday, which is a sign that buyers might be exhausted and the downtrend will likely resume

EIA crude Oil inventories showed a 3.5M barrel build

Crude Oil has been on a bearish trend in the longer term charts, with moving averages acting as resistance at the top, but we have seen a decent bullish retrace since the beginning of July. Although buyers failed to push Oil above the 200 SMA (purple) which rejected the price for a second time, after it had done so earlier in April. Yesterday, the price of Oil touched the falling 200-day moving average, which came at $76.87, but it remained well below that level.

Last week, the price tested the 200-day moving average on both Thursday and Friday before reversing its direction and moving downward, so it seems like this moving average has turned into strong resistance for WTI Crude Oil. Yesterday the EIA crude Oil inventories were released, showing a drawdown, although this was smaller than expected. As we said above, crude Oil jumped higher but stopped right at the 200 SMA, which rejected the price again, so we are looking to sell crude Oil below this moving average.

US Crude Oil – The 200 Daily SMA Acting As Resistance

Oil hesitating to climb above $80

 

US Petroleum Inventory Report for the Week Ending July 14, 2023

  • US oil inventories -708K vs -2440K expected
  • Prior week inventories were +5946K
  • Gasoline -1066K vs -1577K expected
  • Distillates +14K vs +460K expected
  • Refinery utilization +0.6% vs +0.0% expected
  • Production estimate 12.3 mbpd vs 12.3 mbpd prior
  • Impld mogas demand: 8.86mbpd

Refineries ran hard last week in an attempt to build product inventories ahead of driving season.

The API data released late yesterday:

  • Crude -797K
  • Gasoline -2800K
  • Distillates -100K

I wouldn’t expect any buying on this data, especially with resistance ahead and the US dollar rising, although we did see a jump higher to $76.90. The good news for bulls is that SPR releases are now fully complete SPR stocks rose by 1000 barrels with more builds set to come in September.

US WTI Crude Oil Live Chart 

WTI
ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

Related Articles

Comments

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

HFM

Doo Prime

XM

Best Forex Brokers