USD Progresses Further After Yesterday’s Reversal
The US Dollar has made a reversal higher this week after the retreat we saw last week. The economic data is scarce but buyers have pushed the USD around 80 pips higher across the board nonetheless.
The US dollar turned bearish last week after some softer economic figures from the US, but is reversing higher this week. It hit new highs versus the commodity currencies as well as safe havens, with Gold falling below $1,960 where we decided to open a buy Gold signal. Although the USD is retreating somewhat as long-end rates fall.
EUR/USD slipped down to 1.0665, just below the European low. The long end of the bond market may be assisting the changes. US 30-year rates have fallen to a session low of 4.75%, down 7.9 basis points. The decline in Oil prices, which has dropped $3.25 to $77.65 per barrel, might be a factor in that decision. If this trend continues, it should put negative pressure on the November CPI inflation figures.
Although the Atlanta FED GDP estimate for Q4 was revised higher today. But, there are still two months left until the end of the quarter and the end of 2023.
Latest Atlanta FED GDP Estimate![GDPNow]()
We’re still three months away from the first reading on Q4 GDP so I wouldn’t get too excited as the latest tracker has moved up to 2.1% from 1.2%.
After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.5 percent and -2.8 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -1.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.22 percentage points to 0.04 percentage points.
The US dollar will have a lot going for it if Q4 GDP is up more than 2%.
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