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Gold Price Rises on Fed Pause Expectations and Rate Cut Speculations; Eyes Weekly Gains

Arslan Butt•Friday, November 17, 2023•2 min read

The GOLD price (XAU/USD) has experienced an upward trend for two consecutive days, including Friday, marking its fourth increase in the last five days. The price is now just shy of a high not seen in nearly two weeks, achieved the previous day.

Strengthened projections of a prolonged halt in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, reinforced by recent weaker US economic data, have emerged as significant factors propelling the non-interest-bearing gold.

Additionally, there’s growing anticipation in the markets about potential interest rate reductions, possibly in early 2024.This speculation has contributed to a fall in US Treasury bond yields and a weakening of the US Dollar (USD).

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the Dollar against multiple currencies, has struggled to make any significant recovery from its lowest point since September 1, a decline that followed the release of lower-than-expected US consumer inflation data on Tuesday.

Furthermore, ambiguous outcomes from recent top-level US-China discussions have provided additional support to gold, seen as a safe-haven asset, enhancing its outlook for more near-term gains. XAU/USD is set to end the week with an approximate 2.5% increase, reversing a two-week downturn to its lowest level since October 18, seen on Monday.

GOLD has rebounded by over $50 from a multi-week low, in the range of $1,932-1,931, reached on Monday following speculation that the Federal Reserve may cease hiking interest rates. The US CPI report released earlier this week suggested a quicker-than-expected cooling of consumer inflation, while Thursday’s US Jobless Claims indicated a slowing labor market.

The headline CPI remained stable in October, with the annual rate showing its smallest increase in two years, sharply dropping to 3.2% from 3.7% in September. The number of first-time unemployment insurance claims in the US rose to 231K in the week of November 11, up from the previously revised figure of 218K.

Additionally, the recent downturn in oil prices is anticipated to have a deflationary impact, potentially bringing the Fed closer to its 2% target and allowing a softening of its aggressive stance. A number of key Fed officials acknowledged progress in controlling inflation this week, bolstering the notion that the tightening policy may soon conclude. Market traders now appear convinced that US interest rates will not increase further.

Moreover, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool suggests an increasing likelihood of an initial rate cut by March 2024. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond dropped to a near two-month low on Thursday, continuing to weaken the US Dollar and support gold prices.Following a summit where US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to reopen military communication channels, there has been some improvement in relations between the two largest global economies.

However, Biden’s subsequent reference to Xi as a “dictator” may have strained these ties. Traders are now focusing on US housing market data and a forthcoming speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee for short-term market opportunities on the week’s final trading day.

Gold Technical Outlook

GOLD prices have affirmed a breakout above the 1975.00 level, closing the daily session above it and paving the way for continued upward movement. The next positive targets begin at $2000 and extend to $2009, suggesting a bullish trend for today, underpinned by the EMA50 which supports the price from below.

It’s important to note that the persistence of this bullish momentum hinges on maintaining levels above $1975, and more critically above $1962.35.Breaching this latter level would be a bearish signal, potentially redirecting the price back to a corrective downtrend. The trading range expected for today lies between $1970 support and $2005 resistance, with the trend anticipated to be bullish.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Index & Commodity Analyst

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.