USD Showing Signs of Life Before Christmas Close, As Retail Sales Jump
Durable goods orders showed a massive jump on Friday, although they came from a major decline in October, so they can be volatile because they reflect large-ticket items that may be unavailable one month but available the next. Nonetheless, this month’s overall results were impressive, exceeding expectations. However, this is not having much impact on the USD anymore apart from a small jump on late Friday, as markets expect the FED to start cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.
Following the release of the data, the EUR/USD dipped to 1.10, but then recovered to 1.1040. Despite this, it fell again and completed the week near 1.10, as traders remain wary. GOLD fell more throughout the US session on Friday, finishing near $2,050.
US Durable Goods Orders for November 2023
Durable goods orders made a complete reversal last month
- Durable goods orders (preliminary) for November 5.4% vs 2.2% estimate
- Prior month -5.4% revised to -5.1%
- Durable goods 5.4% vs 2.2% est
- Ex transportation 0.5% vs 0.1% est. Prior month 0.0%
- Ex defense 6.5% vs -6.7% last month
- Non-defense capital good ex air 0.8% vs 0.2% estimate. Prior month -0.3%
A detailed look at the Shipments of Durable Goods:
Overall Shipments of Manufactured Durable Goods
- Increased in November after two consecutive monthly decreases.
- Rose by $2.9 billion or 1.0 percent, reaching $283.2 billion.
- Followed a 0.8 percent decrease in October.
Transportation Equipment Shipments
- Also increased after two consecutive monthly decreases.
- Led the overall increase in shipments.
- Grew by $2.0 billion or 2.3 percent, totaling $90.3 billion.
A detailed summary of Unfilled Orders:
Overall Unfilled Orders for Manufactured Durable Goods
- Increased in November, marking an increase in eleven of the last twelve months (shows a backlog)
- Rose by $17.1 billion or 1.3 percent, reaching a total of $1,374.9 billion.
- Followed a 0.4 percent increase in October.
Unfilled Orders in Transportation Equipment
- Also increased in eleven of the last twelve months (shows a backlog of orders).
- Drove the overall increase in unfilled orders.
- Grew by $17.5 billion or 2.0 percent, totaling $878.4 billion.
A detailed look at Inventories of Durable Goods:
Overall Inventories of Manufactured Durable Goods
- Increased in November, marking four consecutive months of growth (with unfilled orders, the inventories seem to be intentional).
- Rose by $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent, reaching a total of $524.8 billion.
- Followed a 0.2 percent increase in October.
Inventories in Transportation Equipment
- Also increased for four consecutive months.
- Led the overall increase in inventories.
- Grew by $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent, totaling $165.9 billion.
A detailed look at Capital Goods:
Nondefense Capital Goods
- New Orders
- Increased $14.8 billion or 17.1 percent to $101.4 billion in November.
- Shipments
- Increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $83.2 billion.
- Unfilled Orders
- Increased $18.2 billion or 2.3 percent to $820.3 billion.
- Inventories
- Increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $227.4 billion.
Defense Capital Goods
- New Orders
- Decreased $1.9 billion or 12.0 percent to $13.6 billion in November.
- Shipments
- Increased $0.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $14.1 billion.
- Unfilled Orders
- Decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $211.6 billion.
- Inventories
- Increased $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $24.5 billion.
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