Polymarket’s $474M Open Interest Peak: Post-Election Decline in Focus

November was a record month for Polymarket, a blockchain prediction platform, as U.S. Presidential Election speculation reached its peak.

Bettors were all in on the head to head race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and Polymarket users correctly called Trump’s win before the election even ended. But December has seen a sharp reversal.

Trading volume has dropped below November’s record $2.57 billion and October’s $2.28 billion. With two days left in the month, December’s volume is $1.7 billion, more than September’s $503 million but far behind recent highs.

Open Interest Hits Post-Peak Low

Dune Analytics metrics show open interest has dropped significantly. On November 5, 2024 it hit an all time high of $474 million. Now it’s at $117 million, down from the post election lull. Despite lower trading volume and open interest, Polymarket had a positive milestone for active monthly traders. December had 309,228 active traders, up from November’s 293,705.

Bets Shift Beyond Politics

As the election fervor dies down, Polymarket is still getting attention with other markets. Popular topics now include “Biden’s pardons”, Federal Reserve rate decisions and cryptocurrency price movements like Bitcoin (BTC). Other trending questions are Trump’s cabinet confirmations and next Speaker of the House. While the politics have faded, these new topics show interest in economic and policy driven events.

Key December Metrics:

  • Total Trading Volume: $1.7 billion (vs. $2.57 billion in November).

  • Active Monthly Traders: 309,228 (up from 293,705 in November).

  • Open Interest: Dropped from $474 million to $117 million.

As 2025 approaches, the platform faces the challenge of sustaining engagement beyond election-driven momentum. The evolving landscape of Polymarket’s predictions will determine whether it can recapture the excitement of its November peak or remain a niche platform for speculative bettors.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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