Bitcoin Hits $98K as Volatility Plunges 40%: Can Institutional Money Drive New Era of Stability?
Bitcoin’s annualized volatility dropped to 50% in 2024—a historic low compared to 80% in 2022 and over 100% in 2018—even though its price exceeded $98,000.
Bitcoin’s Market Performance in 2025
Early 2025’s path of the flagship cryptocurrency has been dotted by notable events. With an amazing 122% return in 2024, Bitcoin’s market valuation currently comes at $1.92 trillion. Launched in January 2024, the success of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with total assets exceeding $100 billion by year-end, is especially remarkable; this marks what ARK Invest termed “the most successful ETF launch in history.”
The April 2024 halving event dropped Bitcoin’s inflation rate to 0.9%, the first time it dropped below the long-term supply increase pace of gold. Together with institutional acceptance, this slowing down of supply growth has helped to explain Bitcoin’s price stability and continuous rise.
Macroeconomic Fears Weigh on BTC
Recent market action has showed macroeconomic factor sensitivity as well as resilience. Geopolitical issues related to trade war concerns have caused a significant drop in the value of the cryptocurrencies below $92,000. The Fear & Greed Index swiftly rebounding from 44 (fear) to 72 (greed), the market showed amazing recovery strength, nevertheless.
Technical analysis shows Bitcoin BTC/USD is presently trading inside a consolidated range of $92,000-$106,000 with important support levels at $91,500 and resistance at $98,500 +/- 100,000. While longer-term moving averages point to continuous optimistic underlying strength, the relative strength index (RSI) rests at 43.6, indicating neutral momentum.
Stablecoin Dominance and Bitcoin Outlook
2024 saw yet another major change in the crypto ecosystem: stablecoin transaction values exceeded conventional payment systems. Stablecoins handled 119% and 200% of Visa’s and Mastercard’s transaction values respectively, while annual transaction value for stablecoins came to $15.6 trillion. Although there are still less transactions, the average value each one transaction carries well above conventional payment systems.
With price forecasts ranging from $160,000 to $250,000, analysts see ongoing increase through 2025. Technical signals point to a possible market top around September-October 2025, including RSI analysis and Pi Cycle Top. But the market has displayed different traits from past cycles; since November 2022, 75% of price activity has been driven by long stretches of consolidation.
Crypto Regulatory Landscape
Particularly in light of Republican wins in both chambers of Congress, the regulatory scene is changing. Industry analysts say that stablecoin regulation has “broad consensus” and that several bipartisan proposals under development reflect this. The wider crypto market may find more stability thanks to this regulatory clarity.
Market Risks and Considerations
Despite the positive outlook, several risk factors warrant attention:
- Potential impact of global trade tensions
- Technical resistance at psychological price levels above $100,000
- Historical cycle patterns suggesting mature market behavior
- Geopolitical uncertainties affecting risk asset performance
