$100K BTC? Lyn Alden Drops Bold 2025 Prediction

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden is making waves in the crypto space with a bold prediction for Bitcoin. Despite the recent volatility, Alden thinks Bitcoin could hit $85,000 by 2025.

According to her, a big market shift like the 2003-2007 period before the global financial crisis could be the catalyst for this rise. She also notes that Bitcoin’s price volatility is a result of its 24/7 trading, which can cause wild price swings when traditional markets react to uncertainty.

Tariffs and Liquidity Unlock: Key Drivers of Bitcoin

Alden attributes Bitcoin’s price trajectory to several factors. First, she mentions the impact of U.S. tariffs which she believes has held back Bitcoin’s growth. In February, former President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement caused a market disruption, slowing down Bitcoin’s climb. Without that announcement, Alden would have set a higher target for Bitcoin’s price. But she’s still optimistic, saying Bitcoin will end 2025 higher than it is now.

Key Drivers of Growth:

• Tariffs: U.S. tariffs have been a drag on price growth.

• Liquidity Unlock: A big liquidity event like a Fed intervention could push Bitcoin higher.

• Global Liquidity: Bitcoin tracks global M2 liquidity, so we can see it in its price movements.

Traditional Markets and Bitcoin’s 24/7 Trading

Unlike stocks, Bitcoin trades 24/7, making it more sensitive to global financial instability. Alden points this out as a key reason for Bitcoin’s volatility. When financial markets are uncertain, investors can sell Bitcoin outside of regular market hours, causing price swings. While this is a disadvantage, Alden says Bitcoin could eventually decouple from traditional markets like the Nasdaq 100 if traditional markets face challenges that don’t impact global liquidity.

Challenges:

• Traditional Market Shocks: Bitcoin’s volatility increases when traditional markets drop big.

• 24/7 Trading: Round-the-clock trading makes Bitcoin susceptible to sudden price moves especially during market fear.

Historical Precedents: Can Bitcoin follow the 2003-2007 trend?

Alden compares Bitcoin’s potential to the financial landscape of 2003-2007. During that period the U.S. dollar was weak and capital flowed out of stocks into emerging markets, commodities and gold. If history repeats itself, Alden thinks Bitcoin could do well even as U.S. stocks underperform. Her research shows that Bitcoin is tied to global liquidity so it should do well in a similar environment.

Alden’s Bitcoin Prediction:

• Global Liquidity Ties: Bitcoin moves with global M2 liquidity 83% of the time.

• Emerging Markets Boost: In a weak dollar cycle, Bitcoin could outperform U.S. stocks.

In summary, Lyn Alden sees Bitcoin on track to hit $100,000 by 2025 due to market shifts, liquidity events and its ability to decouple from the traditional financial system.